Loyola Chicago at Colorado St
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 1:30 PM ET at Moby Arena. Loyola Chicago our rank 132 · 2-1; Colorado St our rank 85 · 3-0.
Who will win Loyola Chicago vs Colorado St?
The model gives Colorado State a 84% chance to beat Loyola Chicago, with a projected score of Colorado St 80, Loyola Chicago 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado St | |||||
| ButlerG · 29 min | 12.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| PascarelliG · 30 min | 11.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| BoothF · 28 min | 11.9 | 5.5 | 0.6 | 10+ 61% | |
| JorgensenF · 24 min | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 51% | |
| Loyola Chicago | |||||
| NessahG · 25 min | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 15+ 34% | |
| SchofieldC · 24 min | 10.1 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 49% | |
| GrotzingerG · 24 min | 9.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 10+ 42% | |
| JeffreyG · 19 min | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Carey Booth: Loyola Chicago 24%Colorado St 76%
The white mark is the call with him: Colorado St 84%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Colorado St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado St | ||||
| Carey Booth | 2.9 | 76% | −8 | 70–78 |
| Kyle Jorgensen | 2.2 | 78% | −6 | 70–78 |
| Jase Butler | 2.0 | 79% | −5 | 70–79 |
| Josh Pascarelli | 1.9 | 79% | −5 | 69–79 |
| Loyola Chicago | ||||
| Chris Jeffrey | 1.4 | 87% | +3 | 68–80 |
| Jason Schofield | 1.2 | 86% | +2 | 68–80 |
| Jayden Dawson | 1.0 | 86% | +2 | 68–80 |
| Elias Rapieque | 0.8 | 86% | +2 | 68–80 |
Change is in Colorado St's win chance, in points. Scores read Loyola Chicago, then Colorado St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Loyola Chicago 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 93-107at Air ForceDidn't cover −10.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 5W 76-53vs West GeorgiaCovered −17.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2W 77-52vs The Citadel
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 70.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Colorado St 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 87-71vs Portland StDidn't cover −16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 6W 78-67vs IdahoDidn't cover −16.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 84-74vs Montana St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 70.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Loyola Chicago | Colorado St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.6 149th | 112.1 72nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.3 134th | 102.9 95th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 238th | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.3% 127th | 52.2% 75th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 148th | 50.9% 205th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 106th | 17.8% 141st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 34th | 26.6% 361st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 353rd | 0.27 128th |
The widest gap: Colorado St's offense (72nd) against Loyola Chicago's defense (134th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Loyola Chicago 32, Colorado St 38
- First-half margin
- Colorado St by 6.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.5
- Projected second half
- Loyola Chicago 37, Colorado St 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Loyola Chicago, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 35.3 allowed
- Colorado St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Loyola Chicago
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayan NessahG | 25 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Guillaume GrotzingerG | 24 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Jason SchofieldC | 24 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Ryan AgarwalG | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Chris JeffreyG | 19 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jayden DawsonG | 19 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 27% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Elias RapiequeF | 18 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Xavier AmosF | 17 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Colorado St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh PascarelliG | 30 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jase ButlerG | 29 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 55% | |||||
| Carey BoothF | 28 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Justin MenardG | 25 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Kyle JorgensenF | 24 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Rashaan MbembaF | 16 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Jaden GhoreishiF | 16 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Jojo McIverG | 14 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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