Montana St 74, Colorado St 84
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Moby Arena. Montana St our rank 118 · 1-2; Colorado St our rank 85 · 3-0.
Who won Montana St vs Colorado St?
Final: Colorado State 84, Montana State 74. Before tip-off the model gave Colorado State a 82% chance to win, with a projected margin of 11.2 points for Colorado State. Josh Pascarelli scored 16 for Colorado St; Jeremiah Davis had 17 for Montana St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Carey Booth: Montana St 25%Colorado St 75%
The white mark is the call with him: Colorado St 82%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Colorado St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado St | ||||
| Carey Booth | 2.9 | 75% | −7 | 63–72 |
| Kyle Jorgensen | 2.2 | 77% | −5 | 63–72 |
| Jase Butler | 2.0 | 77% | −5 | 63–72 |
| Josh Pascarelli | 1.9 | 78% | −4 | 63–72 |
| Montana St | ||||
| Jed Miller | 2.5 | 87% | +5 | 61–74 |
| Jeremiah Davis | 1.6 | 85% | +3 | 61–74 |
| Christian King | 1.4 | 85% | +3 | 61–74 |
| Jaden Steppe | 0.7 | 83% | +1 | 62–74 |
Change is in Colorado St's win chance, in points. Scores read Montana St, then Colorado St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Montana St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Colorado St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Montana St | Colorado St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.8 105th | 112.1 72nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.3 159th | 102.9 95th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 238th | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.3% 68th | 52.2% 75th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.7% 321st | 50.9% 205th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 97th | 17.8% 141st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 279th | 26.6% 361st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 301st | 0.27 128th |
The widest gap: Colorado St's offense (72nd) against Montana St's defense (159th), of 365 teams.
First half
Colorado St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.2 points and the total by 18.6.
- At halftime
- Montana St 38, Colorado St 44
- Projected halftime score
- Montana St 29, Colorado St 35
- First-half margin
- Colorado St by 6.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Montana St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavin HoldenG | 31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Jeremiah DavisG | 31 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Christian KingF | 27 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| Howie KeeneG | 27 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| Jaden SteppeF | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Darnez SlaterG | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah CraneG | 19 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Seth AmunrudG | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Hale HansenF | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Colorado St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh PascarelliG | 32 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jase ButlerG | 32 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| Kyle JorgensenF | 29 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Carey BoothF | 28 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin MenardG | 21 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jojo McIverG | 19 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaden GhoreishiF | 14 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashaan MbembaF | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pops DunsonG | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |