Ohio 86, South Alabama 77
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Mitchell Center. Ohio our rank 150 · 2-0; South Alabama our rank 157 · 2-2.
Who won Ohio vs South Alabama?
Final: Ohio 86, South Alabama 77. Before tip-off the model gave Ohio a 46% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 1.3 points for South Alabama. Kolton Mitchell scored 21 for Ohio; Jalen Langsy had 25 for South Alabama.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Stephen Williams: Ohio 53%South Alabama 47%
The white mark is the call with him: South Alabama 54%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | South Alabama without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | ||||
| Stephen Williams | 1.9 | 47% | −7 | 68–67 |
| Peyton Law | 0.8 | 52% | −2 | 67–68 |
| Jalen Langsy | 0.5 | 53% | −1 | 67–68 |
| Ohio | ||||
| Kolton Mitchell | 1.6 | 61% | +7 | 66–69 |
| Javan Simmons | 1.5 | 61% | +7 | 66–69 |
| Jackson Paveletzke | 1.2 | 60% | +6 | 66–69 |
Change is in South Alabama's win chance, in points. Scores read Ohio, then South Alabama. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Ohio
No games yet this season: this is its first.
South Alabama
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ohio | South Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.4 136th | 106.8 129th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.0 196th | 109.9 223rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 95th | 68.3 357th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.0% 38th | 51.5% 108th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 174th | 54.4% 356th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 223rd | 16.7% 43rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 179th | 29.4% 310th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 107th | 0.23 332nd |
The widest gap: Ohio's offense (136th) against South Alabama's defense (223rd), of 365 teams.
First half
South Alabama led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 5.5.
- At halftime
- Ohio 34, South Alabama 35
- Projected halftime score
- Ohio 31, South Alabama 32
- First-half margin
- South Alabama by 0.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Ohio
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson PaveletzkeG | 38 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Dusan MakitanF | 36 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 2 |
| Javan SimmonsF | 36 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Kolton MitchellG | 30 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Siebe LedegenG | 27 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Kyler D'AugustinoG | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Marin PetkovG | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Kiir KuanyF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ché BroganG | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
South Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen LangsyG | 36 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Diego RomanG | 35 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Aaron GoldsteinG | 28 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Davaughn HueittF | 25 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Stephen WilliamsF | 24 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Roderick Williams Jr.F | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Peyton LawF | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Desmond WilliamsG | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel ShoptawG | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |