South Alabama at North Texas
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at The Super Pit. South Alabama our rank 157 · 2-2; North Texas our rank 101 · 2-1.
Who will win South Alabama vs North Texas?
The model gives North Texas a 78% chance to beat South Alabama, with a projected score of North Texas 77, South Alabama 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | |||||
| StevensonG · 32 min | 19.5 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 20+ 47% | |
| ChavisG · 30 min | 13.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 15+ 41% | |
| NdourF · 24 min | 10.2 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 50% | |
| RobinsonF · 25 min | 8.7 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 39% | |
| South Alabama | |||||
| LangsyG · 36 min | 17.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 15+ 64% | |
| WilliamsF · 30 min | 15.3 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 15+ 50% | |
| GoldsteinG · 34 min | 14.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 15+ 48% | |
| RomanG · 25 min | 6.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Je'Shawn Stevenson: South Alabama 30%North Texas 70%
The white mark is the call with him: North Texas 78%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | North Texas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | ||||
| Je'Shawn Stevenson | 2.7 | 70% | −8 | 69–75 |
| Amar Amkou | 1.4 | 74% | −4 | 68–76 |
| Cash Chavis | 1.4 | 74% | −4 | 68–76 |
| Cole Franklin | 1.4 | 75% | −3 | 68–76 |
| South Alabama | ||||
| Stephen Williams | 1.9 | 83% | +5 | 67–78 |
| Peyton Law | 0.8 | 80% | +2 | 67–77 |
| Jalen Langsy | 0.5 | 80% | +2 | 67–77 |
Change is in North Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read South Alabama, then North Texas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
South Alabama 2-2LWLW
- Nov 12W 79-72vs LMU
- Nov 10L 69-76at UCFCovered +13.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 5W 83-80vs Jax StateDidn't cover −4.5 · Over 139.5
- Nov 2L 77-86vs Ohio
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 77.0 and allowing 78.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
North Texas 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 71-76vs Santa ClaraDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 5W 77-67vs McNeeseCovered +1.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 2W 122-50vs Southwestern Christian U
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 90.0 and allowing 64.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Alabama | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.8 129th | 107.8 114th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.9 223rd | 102.6 92nd |
| Possessions a game | 68.3 357th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.5% 108th | 49.7% 236th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.4% 356th | 50.3% 175th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.7% 43rd | 18.9% 281st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.4% 310th | 31.8% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 332nd | 0.26 194th |
The widest gap: North Texas's offense (114th) against South Alabama's defense (223rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- South Alabama 31, North Texas 36
- First-half margin
- North Texas by 4.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.7
- Projected second half
- South Alabama 36, North Texas 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Alabama, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 32.8 scored, 33.0 allowed
- North Texas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.0 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
South Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen LangsyG | 36 | 17.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Aaron GoldsteinG | 34 | 14.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Stephen WilliamsF | 30 | 15.3 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 8+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Diego RomanG | 25 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Lenni KunzewitschF | 23 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Davaughn HueittF | 20 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Peyton LawF | 20 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Roderick Williams Jr.F | 15 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 48% | |||||
Missed the last game: Davaughn Hueitt (23 min a game).
North Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Je'Shawn StevensonG | 32 | 19.5 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.4 |
| 20+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Cash ChavisG | 30 | 13.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Cole FranklinG | 26 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Reece RobinsonF | 25 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Ousmane NdourF | 24 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Amar AmkouG | 24 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Aeneas AlexanderG | 18 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Marcus ZeleeG | 14 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 28% to play · 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Missed the last game: Marcus Zelee (18 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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