North Texas at App State
Friday, November 20, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Holmes Convocation Center. North Texas our rank 101 · 2-1; App State our rank 148 · 2-1.
Who will win North Texas vs App State?
The model gives North Texas a 58% chance to beat App State, with a projected score of North Texas 71, App State 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | |||||
| StevensonG · 33 min | 18.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 20+ 43% | |
| ChavisG · 31 min | 13.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 15+ 38% | |
| NdourF · 24 min | 9.7 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| RobinsonF · 25 min | 8.3 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 35% | |
| App State | |||||
| ColonG · 29 min | 9.8 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| BanksG · 26 min | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 43% | |
| KopetzkiG · 24 min | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 35% | |
| LytchF · 16 min | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Je'Shawn Stevenson: North Texas 49%App State 51%
The white mark is the call with him: North Texas 58%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | North Texas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | ||||
| Je'Shawn Stevenson | 2.7 | 49% | −9 | 69–70 |
| Amar Amkou | 1.4 | 53% | −5 | 70–69 |
| Cash Chavis | 1.4 | 53% | −5 | 70–69 |
| Cole Franklin | 1.4 | 53% | −5 | 70–69 |
| App State | ||||
| Rrezon Elezaj | 1.1 | 62% | +4 | 71–68 |
| Jonathan Moss | 0.6 | 60% | +2 | 71–68 |
| Da'Mori Lytch | 0.6 | 60% | +2 | 71–68 |
| Ben Kopetzki | 0.6 | 60% | +2 | 71–68 |
Change is in North Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read North Texas, then App State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
North Texas 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 71-76vs Santa ClaraDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 5W 77-67vs McNeeseCovered +1.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 2W 122-50vs Southwestern Christian U
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 90.0 and allowing 64.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Texas | App State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.8 114th | 103.2 195th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.6 92nd | 105.8 128th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 68.1 362nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 236th | 49.6% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 175th | 47.9% 31st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 281st | 18.5% 229th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 174th | 34.2% 45th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 194th | 0.26 199th |
The widest gap: North Texas's defense (92nd) against App State's offense (195th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- North Texas 33, App State 32
- First-half margin
- North Texas by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.1
- Projected second half
- North Texas 37, App State 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- North Texas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.0 scored, 27.7 allowed
- App State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 43.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
North Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Je'Shawn StevensonG | 33 | 18.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| 20+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Cash ChavisG | 31 | 13.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Cole FranklinG | 27 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Reece RobinsonF | 25 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Ousmane NdourF | 24 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Amar AmkouG | 24 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Aeneas AlexanderG | 18 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Marcus ZeleeG | 14 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 28% to play · 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Marcus Zelee (18 min a game).
App State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen ColonG | 29 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 51% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Eren BanksG | 26 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ben KopetzkiG | 24 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Chad MoodieF | 20 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 56% | |||||
| Ted NealF | 17 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Da'Mori LytchF | 16 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Jonathan MossG | 15 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Rrezon ElezajC | 12 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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