Oklahoma St v Minnesota
Friday, November 20, 2026, 12:30 PM ET at TD Arena. Oklahoma St our rank 37 · 2-1; Minnesota our rank 64 · 4-0.
Who will win Oklahoma St vs Minnesota?
The model gives Oklahoma State a 62% chance to beat Minnesota, with a projected score of Oklahoma St 76, Minnesota 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma St | |||||
| BurksF · 23 min | 10.3 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| HalaifonuaC · 21 min | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| FelesiG · 27 min | 9.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| WalkerG · 24 min | 8.8 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| Minnesota | |||||
| AsumaG · 34 min | 14.7 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 15+ 47% | |
| Crocker-JohnsonF · 27 min | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 65% | |
| DurkinF · 32 min | 10.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| EvansG · 32 min | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 10+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jordan Burks: Oklahoma St 52%Minnesota 48%
The white mark is the call with him: Oklahoma St 62%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oklahoma St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma St | ||||
| Jordan Burks | 3.0 | 52% | −10 | 75–74 |
| Kashie Natt | 3.0 | 52% | −10 | 75–74 |
| Julius Halaifonua | 2.5 | 53% | −9 | 75–74 |
| Kanye Clary | 2.1 | 55% | −7 | 75–74 |
| Minnesota | ||||
| Isaac Asuma | 2.4 | 70% | +8 | 77–72 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | 2.3 | 70% | +8 | 77–72 |
| Bobby Durkin | 2.1 | 69% | +7 | 77–72 |
| Kyan Evans | 1.9 | 69% | +7 | 77–72 |
Change is in Oklahoma St's win chance, in points. Scores read Oklahoma St, then Minnesota. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oklahoma St 2-1WWL
- Nov 12L 69-88at Texas A&MDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 179.5
- Nov 6W 118-68vs QueensCovered −18.5 · Over 178.5
- Nov 2W 91-60vs Incarnate Word
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 72.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Minnesota 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 91-61vs SouthernCovered −26.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 9W 63-61at CincinnatiCovered +7.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 6W 76-62vs St ThomasDidn't cover −14.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2W 85-50vs North Dakota
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 78.8 and allowing 58.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oklahoma St | Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 114.9 54th | 112.1 74th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.5 36th | 99.1 45th |
| Possessions a game | 73.5 7th | 68.0 363rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.2% 133rd | 52.8% 49th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.6% 191st | 47.7% 23rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 86th | 19.0% 288th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.8% 12th | 33.5% 83rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 101st | 0.22 347th |
The widest gap: Oklahoma St's defense (36th) against Minnesota's offense (74th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oklahoma St 36, Minnesota 34
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma St by 1.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.9
- Projected second half
- Oklahoma St 40, Minnesota 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oklahoma St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 32.7 allowed
- Minnesota, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.2 scored, 25.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oklahoma St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony FelesiG | 27 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jacob WalkerG | 24 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jordan BurksF | 23 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Kashie NattG | 23 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Julius HalaifonuaC | 21 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Kanye ClaryG | 20 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Andrija GrbovicF | 17 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Latrell AllmondF | 14 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac AsumaG | 34 | 14.7 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Bobby DurkinF | 32 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kyan EvansG | 32 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Jaylen Crocker-JohnsonF | 27 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Grayson GroveF | 24 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Nolan GrovesG | 20 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Malick KordelC | 13 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…