Rhode Island v Liberty
Friday, November 20, 2026, 4:30 PM ET at Colonial Hall. Rhode Island our rank 102 · 4-0; Liberty our rank 136 · 1-1.
Who will win Rhode Island vs Liberty?
The model gives Rhode Island a 65% chance to beat Liberty, with a projected score of Rhode Island 73, Liberty 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | |||||
| DeniusasF · 27 min | 13.3 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 15+ 38% | |
| WilliamsonG · 29 min | 13.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 15+ 37% | |
| HintonG · 30 min | 11.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 61% | |
| TrippG · 26 min | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 51% | |
| Liberty | |||||
| CampbellG · 27 min | 12.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 10+ 62% | |
| SancombG · 25 min | 9.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 42% | |
| CampbellG · 22 min | 8.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 40% | |
| CarterG · 26 min | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jahmere Tripp: Rhode Island 59%Liberty 41%
The white mark is the call with him: Rhode Island 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Rhode Island without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | ||||
| Jahmere Tripp | 2.0 | 59% | −6 | 72–70 |
| Matas Deniusas | 1.9 | 59% | −6 | 72–70 |
| Dylan Williamson | 1.7 | 60% | −5 | 72–70 |
| Jonah Hinton | 1.4 | 61% | −4 | 73–69 |
| Liberty | ||||
| Cooper Campbell | 1.6 | 70% | +5 | 74–68 |
| Zander Carter | 0.9 | 68% | +3 | 74–68 |
| Cobi Campbell | 0.7 | 67% | +2 | 74–68 |
| Eli Sancomb | 0.7 | 67% | +2 | 74–68 |
Change is in Rhode Island's win chance, in points. Scores read Rhode Island, then Liberty. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Rhode Island 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 67-47vs MD EasternDidn't cover −23.5 · Under 136.5
- Nov 10W 71-65vs MaineDidn't cover −20.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 7W 84-66vs MonmouthCovered −6.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 3W 103-59vs Holy Cross
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 81.2 and allowing 59.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Liberty 1-1LW
- Nov 7W 113-54vs Boyce
- Nov 1L 57-72vs High Point
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 63.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Rhode Island | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.3 119th | 105.3 155th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.3 88th | 106.4 137th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 69.0 333rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 171st | 49.2% 279th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.7% 126th | 51.2% 238th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.4% 20th | 17.4% 107th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 161st | 29.9% 287th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 183rd | 0.25 247th |
The widest gap: Rhode Island's defense (88th) against Liberty's offense (155th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Rhode Island 35, Liberty 32
- First-half margin
- Rhode Island by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.6
- Projected second half
- Rhode Island 39, Liberty 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Rhode Island, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 37.2 scored, 26.2 allowed
- Liberty, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 51.0 scored, 19.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Rhode Island
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah HintonG | 30 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 55% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Dylan WilliamsonG | 29 | 13.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Matas DeniusasF | 27 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Jason Fontenet IIG | 26 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jahmere TrippG | 26 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Nedas RaupelisF | 14 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
| Javon PerryF | 12 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 45% | |||||
| Jalen HarperG | 12 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Liberty
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper CampbellG | 27 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Zander CarterG | 26 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Eli SancombG | 25 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Eli HerbertG | 23 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Cobi CampbellG | 22 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ ast 36% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Matthew SheltonG | 19 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Reece DavidsonF | 17 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Ryan Jones Jr.F | 15 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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