Richmond v Western KY
Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Colonial Hall. Richmond our rank 121 · 3-1; Western KY our rank 135 · 3-1.
Who will win Richmond vs Western KY?
The model gives Richmond a 55% chance to beat Western Kentucky, with a projected score of Richmond 75, Western KY 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | |||||
| StewartG · 26 min | 14.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 15+ 48% | |
| Kaiser Jr.F · 30 min | 13.8 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 15+ 42% | |
| DorriesC · 25 min | 10.6 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 10+ 52% | |
| BallF · 20 min | 10.1 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 49% | |
| Western KY | |||||
| MooreG · 25 min | 16.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 15+ 58% | |
| BooneG · 25 min | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 10+ 46% | |
| Erkins-FordF · 20 min | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 32% | |
| YoungG · 26 min | 7.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jamie Kaiser Jr.: Richmond 50%Western KY 50%
The white mark is the call with him: Richmond 55%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Richmond without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | ||||
| Jamie Kaiser Jr. | 1.5 | 50% | −5 | 74–74 |
| Aiden Argabright | 1.4 | 50% | −5 | 75–74 |
| Derin Saran | 1.4 | 51% | −4 | 75–74 |
| Andrew Ball | 1.0 | 52% | −3 | 75–74 |
| Western KY | ||||
| Teagan Moore | 2.0 | 64% | +9 | 76–73 |
| Armelo Boone | 1.2 | 61% | +6 | 76–73 |
| Sharron Young | 1.1 | 60% | +5 | 76–73 |
| LJ Hackman | 0.8 | 59% | +4 | 76–73 |
Change is in Richmond's win chance, in points. Scores read Richmond, then Western KY. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Richmond 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 70-80at S IllinoisDidn't cover −2.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 8W 79-53vs TempleCovered −1.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 5W 107-46vs Southern Virginia
- Nov 2W 100-77vs UNC Asheville
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 89.0 and allowing 64.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Western KY 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 78-51vs Campbellsville
- Nov 8L 94-97at Tennessee TechDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 164.5
- Nov 5W 82-48vs Kentucky Wesleyan
- Nov 2W 83-58vs Morehead St
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 84.2 and allowing 63.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Richmond | Western KY | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.2 158th | 103.3 193rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.3 105th | 104.4 108th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 28th | 49.7% 236th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 94th | 51.1% 233rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 267th | 16.7% 45th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 181st | 31.3% 213th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 336th | 0.28 75th |
The widest gap: Richmond's defense (105th) against Western KY's offense (193rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Richmond 35, Western KY 35
- First-half margin
- Richmond by 0.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.9
- Projected second half
- Richmond 40, Western KY 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Richmond, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 45.8 scored, 27.8 allowed
- Western KY, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 38.0 scored, 28.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Richmond
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Kaiser Jr.F | 30 | 13.8 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Derin SaranG | 28 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 53% · 5+ ast 48% | |||||
| Aiden ArgabrightG | 27 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Dominick StewartG | 26 | 14.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Amon DorriesC | 25 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Andrew BallF | 20 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Will Harper IIIG | 13 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Chad CookF | 13 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
Western KY
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharron YoungG | 26 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Teagan MooreG | 25 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Armelo BooneG | 25 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Emondrek Erkins-FordF | 20 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| EJ WalkerF | 19 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| LJ HackmanG | 19 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Trevion LaBeauxG | 18 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Moussa KonareF | 14 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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