Northwestern v Virginia Tech
Friday, November 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at TD Arena. Northwestern our rank 69 · 3-0; Virginia Tech our rank 53 · 3-0.
Who will win Northwestern vs Virginia Tech?
The model gives Virginia Tech a 64% chance to beat Northwestern, with a projected score of Virginia Tech 77, Northwestern 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | |||||
| HammondG · 31 min | 19.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 20+ 44% | |
| HansberryF · 33 min | 17.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 15+ 63% | |
| CurryG · 29 min | 15.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 15+ 54% | |
| ElohimG · 26 min | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| Northwestern | |||||
| KarasinskiF · 25 min | 17.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 20+ 37% | |
| PrattG · 34 min | 16.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 15+ 58% | |
| WestG · 34 min | 15.2 | 2.1 | 5.5 | 15+ 50% | |
| CiaravinoG · 35 min | 10.2 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Amani Hansberry: Northwestern 49%Virginia Tech 51%
The white mark is the call with him: Virginia Tech 64%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Virginia Tech without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | ||||
| Amani Hansberry | 3.6 | 51% | −13 | 75–75 |
| Ben Hammond | 3.4 | 52% | −12 | 74–75 |
| Jaylen Curry | 2.4 | 55% | −9 | 74–75 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2.2 | 56% | −8 | 74–76 |
| Northwestern | ||||
| Angelo Ciaravino | 3.2 | 74% | +10 | 71–78 |
| Jake West | 2.7 | 72% | +8 | 71–78 |
| Okku Federiko | 1.9 | 70% | +6 | 72–78 |
| LA Pratt | 1.4 | 68% | +4 | 72–77 |
Change is in Virginia Tech's win chance, in points. Scores read Northwestern, then Virginia Tech. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Northwestern 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 72-55vs Boston UCovered −13.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 6W 78-65vs Stony BrookCovered −12.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2W 86-60vs Binghamton
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 60.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Northwestern | Virginia Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 112.9 68th | 115.8 45th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.2 73rd | 100.4 67th |
| Possessions a game | 68.8 344th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.8% 92nd | 53.3% 26th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 182nd | 49.8% 132nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 38th | 16.5% 27th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 251st | 33.0% 107th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 191st | 0.28 79th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Northwestern 34, Virginia Tech 36
- First-half margin
- Virginia Tech by 2.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Projected second half
- Northwestern 39, Virginia Tech 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Northwestern, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 29.7 allowed
- Virginia Tech, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 46.0 scored, 25.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Northwestern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo CiaravinoG | 35 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| LA PrattG | 34 | 16.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 3+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Jake WestG | 34 | 15.2 | 2.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 6+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Okku FederikoF | 28 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jack KarasinskiF | 25 | 17.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| 25% to play · 20+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Phoenix GillG | 20 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Colin SmithF | 19 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ryan SoulisF | 14 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jack Karasinski (28 min a game).
Virginia Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani HansberryF | 33 | 17.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Ben HammondG | 31 | 19.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| 20+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 57% | |||||
| Jaylen CurryG | 29 | 15.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Tyler JohnsonG | 26 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Isaiah ElohimG | 26 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Miles HeideF | 17 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 54% | |||||
| Butta JohnsonG | 17 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Musa SagniaC | 11 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3+ reb 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…