Who will win Iowa vs Xavier?
The model gives Xavier a 63% chance to beat Iowa, with a projected score of Xavier 77, Iowa 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Xavier | |||||
| NwokoF · 22 min | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 60% | |
| WestryG · 19 min | 10.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 10+ 54% | |
| MilicevicF · 21 min | 10.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| WashingtonG · 23 min | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 10+ 43% | |
 Iowa | |||||
| ColemanG · 25 min | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 10+ 62% | |
| KochF · 35 min | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| SageG · 24 min | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| HowardG · 27 min | 7.4 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mike Nwoko: Iowa 48%Xavier 52%
The white mark is the call with him: Xavier 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Xavier without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | ||||
| Mike Nwoko | 3.3 | 52% | −11 | 75–75 |
| Tru Washington | 3.2 | 52% | −11 | 75–75 |
| Filip Borovicanin | 2.6 | 54% | −9 | 74–76 |
| Chance Westry | 2.6 | 54% | −9 | 74–76 |
| Iowa | ||||
| Cooper Koch | 3.5 | 75% | +12 | 71–79 |
| Isaia Howard | 3.1 | 73% | +10 | 72–78 |
| Tate Sage | 2.9 | 73% | +10 | 72–78 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman | 2.8 | 72% | +9 | 72–78 |
Change is in Xavier's win chance, in points. Scores read Iowa, then Xavier. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Iowa 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 88-93vs Virginia TechDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 6W 91-47vs E IllinoisCovered −34.5 · Over 135.5
- Nov 3W 76-54vs Lipscomb
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 64.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Xavier 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 100-55vs Detroit MercyCovered −35.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6W 76-53vs E MichiganDidn't cover −23.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 97-52vs Mount St Marys
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.0 and allowing 53.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Iowa | Xavier | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 120.7 7th | 114.1 61st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.8 44th | 92.3 13th |
| Possessions a game | 67.7 365th | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 30th | 52.0% 83rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.6% 49th | 45.6% 2nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 202nd | 18.3% 205th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 28th | 31.0% 228th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 63rd | 0.24 294th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Iowa 34, Xavier 36
- First-half margin
- Xavier by 2.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Projected second half
- Iowa 39, Xavier 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 39.5 scored, 24.5 allowed
- Xavier, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 20.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper KochF | 35 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Isaia HowardG | 27 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Ty'Reek ColemanG | 25 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tate SageG | 24 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Kael CombsG | 22 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Peyton McCollumG | 18 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Trevin JirakC | 16 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Cam ManyawuF | 16 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip BorovicaninF | 24 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Tru WashingtonG | 23 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Mike NwokoF | 22 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Jovan MilicevicF | 21 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Ruben DominguezG | 21 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Chance WestryG | 19 | 10.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Nikos ChitikoudisF | 18 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Gabriel PozzatoF | 16 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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