Who will win Creighton vs Iowa?
The model gives Iowa a 70% chance to beat Creighton, with a projected score of Iowa 76, Creighton 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iowa | |||||
| ColemanG · 25 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| KochF · 35 min | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 62% | |
| SageG · 24 min | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 39% | |
| HowardG · 27 min | 7.6 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 31% | |
 Creighton | |||||
| EnisG · 30 min | 15.3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 15+ 51% | |
| DavisG · 27 min | 13.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 15+ 39% | |
| SwartzG · 24 min | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 5+ 69% | |
| McAndrewF · 20 min | 6.8 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Cooper Koch: Creighton 42%Iowa 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Iowa 70%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Iowa without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | ||||
| Cooper Koch | 3.5 | 58% | −12 | 72–75 |
| Isaia Howard | 3.1 | 60% | −10 | 72–75 |
| Tate Sage | 2.9 | 61% | −9 | 72–75 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman | 2.8 | 61% | −9 | 72–75 |
| Creighton | ||||
| BJ Davis | 3.2 | 79% | +9 | 69–78 |
| Wes Enis | 2.5 | 78% | +8 | 69–78 |
| Jasen Green | 2.3 | 77% | +7 | 69–78 |
| Austin Swartz | 2.2 | 77% | +7 | 69–78 |
Change is in Iowa's win chance, in points. Scores read Creighton, then Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Creighton 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 82-89at Kansas StDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 5W 83-55vs Le MoyneDidn't cover −29.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 2W 76-61vs Kansas City
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.3 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Iowa 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 88-93vs Virginia TechDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 6W 91-47vs E IllinoisCovered −34.5 · Over 135.5
- Nov 3W 76-54vs Lipscomb
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 64.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Creighton | Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.1 83rd | 120.7 7th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.3 32nd | 98.8 44th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 67.7 365th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.3% 267th | 53.3% 30th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 260th | 48.6% 49th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 229th | 18.2% 202nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 76th | 34.8% 28th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 263rd | 0.29 63rd |
The widest gap: Iowa's defense (44th) against Creighton's offense (83rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Creighton 33, Iowa 36
- First-half margin
- Iowa by 3.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.0
- Projected second half
- Creighton 38, Iowa 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Creighton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 39.5 scored, 24.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Creighton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes EnisG | 30 | 15.3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| BJ DavisG | 27 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Austin SwartzG | 24 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jackson McAndrewF | 20 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Hudson GreerG | 20 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jasen GreenF | 19 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Katrelle HarmonG | 18 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Oswin ErhunmwunseF | 17 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 50% | |||||
Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper KochF | 35 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Isaia HowardG | 27 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Ty'Reek ColemanG | 25 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Tate SageG | 24 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Kael CombsG | 22 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Peyton McCollumG | 18 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Trevin JirakC | 16 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Cam ManyawuF | 16 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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