Louisville at Memphis
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at FedExForum. Louisville AP 10, our rank 10 · 2-0; Memphis our rank 74 · 2-1.
Who will win Louisville vs Memphis?
The model gives Louisville a 79% chance to beat Memphis, with a projected score of Louisville 87, Memphis 78.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | |||||
| TrimbleG · 26 min | 12.0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 10+ 62% | |
| ShelstadG · 28 min | 11.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| BidungaF · 23 min | 11.9 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| WooleyG · 25 min | 11.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 10+ 58% | |
| Memphis | |||||
| ReidG · 30 min | 19.1 | 1.6 | 4.7 | 20+ 44% | |
| AlmodovarG · 28 min | 15.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 15+ 52% | |
| WeeksF · 28 min | 15.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 15+ 52% | |
| VaversF · 29 min | 12.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 15+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Flory Bidunga: Louisville 65%Memphis 35%
The white mark is the call with him: Louisville 79%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Louisville without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | ||||
| Flory Bidunga | 4.6 | 65% | −14 | 84–80 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras | 4.5 | 66% | −13 | 84–80 |
| Seth Trimble | 3.6 | 68% | −11 | 85–79 |
| Adrian Wooley | 3.6 | 68% | −11 | 85–79 |
| Memphis | ||||
| Jayden Reid | 2.7 | 85% | +6 | 88–76 |
| Rihards Vavers | 2.3 | 84% | +5 | 88–77 |
| Tylik Weeks | 1.9 | 83% | +4 | 88–77 |
| Luke Almodovar | 1.7 | 83% | +4 | 88–77 |
Change is in Louisville's win chance, in points. Scores read Louisville, then Memphis. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Louisville 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 107-57vs Morehead StCovered −38.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 2W 84-70vs Chattanooga
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 95.5 and allowing 63.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Memphis 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 81-105at VanderbiltDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 160.5
- Nov 7W 89-88vs VCUCovered +2.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 80-76vs Iowa State
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 89.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Louisville | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 120.9 6th | 115.8 42nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.0 24th | 105.7 126th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 79th | 72.2 55th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.6% 101st | 51.6% 102nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 144th | 54.0% 350th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.9% 56th | 15.2% 1st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.4% 16th | 31.5% 198th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 268th | 0.33 5th |
The widest gap: Louisville's offense (6th) against Memphis's defense (126th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Louisville 41, Memphis 36
- First-half margin
- Louisville by 5.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.1
- Projected second half
- Louisville 46, Memphis 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 87.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Louisville, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 51.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Memphis, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 42.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Louisville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson ShelstadG | 28 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 51% | |||||
| Alvaro FolgueirasF | 27 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Seth TrimbleG | 26 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Adrian WooleyG | 25 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Flory BidungaF | 23 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Karter KnoxG | 21 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Obinna Ekezie Jr.C | 17 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Isaac EllisG | 15 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Memphis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden ReidG | 30 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 44% · 5+ ast 49% | |||||
| Rihards VaversF | 29 | 12.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Luke AlmodovarG | 28 | 15.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tylik WeeksF | 28 | 15.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Corneilous WilliamsF | 20 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 49% | |||||
| Josh HollowayG | 16 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Maxim LogueF | 15 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
| Brandin CummingsG | 13 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 22% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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