Who will win Harvard vs American?
The model gives American University a 53% chance to beat Harvard, with a projected score of American 69, Harvard 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 American | |||||
| CollinsG · 32 min | 21.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 20+ 58% | |
| IturbeF · 30 min | 11.1 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| JonesF · 28 min | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| NausadisG · 21 min | 6.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 5+ 61% | |
 Harvard | |||||
| Batties IIF · 35 min | 14.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 15+ 45% | |
| BarbourG · 33 min | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 58% | |
| HintonG · 31 min | 11.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 56% | |
| SingletonG · 25 min | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Madden Collins: Harvard 55%American 45%
The white mark is the call with him: American 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | American without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American | ||||
| Madden Collins | 2.0 | 45% | −8 | 69–68 |
| Greg Jones | 0.6 | 51% | −2 | 68–69 |
| Julen Iturbe | 0.6 | 51% | −2 | 68–69 |
| Harvard | ||||
| Thomas Batties II | 1.7 | 60% | +7 | 67–70 |
| Robert Hinton | 1.6 | 59% | +6 | 67–70 |
| Tey Barbour | 1.3 | 58% | +5 | 67–69 |
Change is in American's win chance, in points. Scores read Harvard, then American. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Harvard 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 70-74at NortheasternDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 8W 63-47at Chicago
- Nov 2W 73-45vs MIT
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 68.7 and allowing 55.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Harvard | American | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.7 232nd | 103.1 198th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 103.2 99th | 107.4 162nd |
| Possessions a game | 68.5 354th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.0% 221st | 51.6% 103rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.8% 62nd | 49.0% 70th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 72nd | 18.5% 227th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.1% 276th | 28.7% 331st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 235th | 0.27 129th |
The widest gap: Harvard's defense (99th) against American's offense (198th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Harvard 32, American 32
- First-half margin
- American by 0.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.2
- Projected second half
- Harvard 36, American 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Harvard, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 23.7 allowed
- American, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Harvard
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Batties IIF | 35 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Tey BarbourG | 33 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Ben EisendrathG | 32 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Robert HintonG | 31 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Jason SingletonG | 25 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Julian AdigunC | 16 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Luca Ace-NasteskiF | 13 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 41% | |||||
American
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madden CollinsG | 32 | 21.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Julen IturbeF | 30 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Greg JonesF | 28 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Matt MayockF | 26 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Eric MichaelsF | 23 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Wyatt NausadisG | 21 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Kade SebastianG | 12 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Dean HogansG | 11 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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