Who will win Towson vs American?
The model gives Towson a 52% chance to beat American University, with a projected score of Towson 70, American 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Towson | |||||
| RoseboroughG · 29 min | 13.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| WomackG · 28 min | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 62% | |
| StanfordG · 28 min | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 53% | |
| DoerrG · 27 min | 9.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 10+ 42% | |
 American | |||||
| CollinsG · 32 min | 21.7 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 20+ 58% | |
| IturbeF · 30 min | 11.2 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| JonesF · 28 min | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 47% | |
| NausadisG · 21 min | 6.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zion Stanford: Towson 47%American 53%
The white mark is the call with him: Towson 52%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Towson without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Towson | ||||
| Zion Stanford | 1.3 | 47% | −5 | 69–70 |
| Jaquan Womack | 1.3 | 47% | −5 | 69–70 |
| Caleb Embeya | 0.8 | 49% | −3 | 70–70 |
| Chike Ndefo | 0.8 | 49% | −3 | 70–70 |
| American | ||||
| Madden Collins | 2.0 | 60% | +8 | 71–68 |
| Greg Jones | 0.6 | 54% | +2 | 70–69 |
| Julen Iturbe | 0.6 | 54% | +2 | 70–69 |
Change is in Towson's win chance, in points. Scores read Towson, then American. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Towson 2-2LLWW
- Nov 12W 90-60vs Loyola MDCovered −13.5 · Over 133.5
- Nov 9W 66-46vs Long IslandCovered −7.5 · Under 140.5
- Nov 5L 57-67at UtahDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 2L 70-89at Santa Clara
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 70.8 and allowing 65.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Towson | American | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.8 185th | 103.1 198th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 103.6 102nd | 107.4 162nd |
| Possessions a game | 68.9 337th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.9% 150th | 51.6% 103rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 76th | 49.0% 70th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 253rd | 18.5% 227th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.7% 14th | 28.7% 331st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 311th | 0.27 129th |
The widest gap: Towson's defense (102nd) against American's offense (198th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Towson 33, American 33
- First-half margin
- Towson by 0.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.4
- Projected second half
- Towson 37, American 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Towson, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 33.0 scored, 30.5 allowed
- American, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Towson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben RoseboroughG | 29 | 13.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Zion StanfordG | 28 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Jaquan WomackG | 28 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Christian DoerrG | 27 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Caleb EmbeyaF | 20 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 55% | |||||
| Jon BartonG | 17 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Chike NdefoG | 17 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Alex AtkinsonF | 13 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
American
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madden CollinsG | 32 | 21.7 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Julen IturbeF | 30 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Greg JonesF | 28 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Matt MayockF | 26 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Eric MichaelsF | 23 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Wyatt NausadisG | 21 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Kade SebastianG | 12 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Dean HogansG | 11 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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