Seattle U v UC San Diego
Sunday, November 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET at Acrisure Arena. Seattle U our rank 137 · 1-2; UC San Diego our rank 113 · 2-0.
Who will win Seattle U vs UC San Diego?
The model gives UC San Diego a 63% chance to beat Seattle U, with a projected score of UC San Diego 75, Seattle U 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | |||||
| BarnoG · 30 min | 13.1 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 15+ 37% | |
| BeathF · 32 min | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| EaglestaffG · 27 min | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 10+ 64% | |
| DotsonG · 20 min | 8.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 39% | |
| Seattle U | |||||
| HeimbrodtF · 33 min | 16.1 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 15+ 55% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 14.1 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 15+ 43% | |
| BostonG · 29 min | 11.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| YeoF · 30 min | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Treysen Eaglestaff: Seattle U 44%UC San Diego 56%
The white mark is the call with him: UC San Diego 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UC San Diego without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | ||||
| Treysen Eaglestaff | 2.1 | 56% | −7 | 72–74 |
| Leo Beath | 1.8 | 57% | −6 | 72–74 |
| Tom Beattie | 1.1 | 59% | −4 | 71–74 |
| Rahmir Barno | 0.8 | 60% | −3 | 71–74 |
| Seattle U | ||||
| Will Heimbrodt | 2.1 | 69% | +6 | 70–76 |
| Halvine Dzellat | 1.1 | 66% | +3 | 70–75 |
| Maleek Arington | 0.8 | 65% | +2 | 71–75 |
| Junseok Yeo | 0.7 | 65% | +2 | 71–75 |
Change is in UC San Diego's win chance, in points. Scores read Seattle U, then UC San Diego. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Seattle U 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 59-86vs UTSADidn't cover −16.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 7W 79-60vs Portland StCovered −10.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2L 73-74at Hawai'i
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 70.3 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
UC San Diego 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 90.5 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Seattle U | UC San Diego | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.3 214th | 107.1 123rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 103.5 101st | 104.8 113th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 240th | 50.9% 153rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.1% 293rd | 50.1% 155th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.3% 307th | 17.6% 121st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.1% 275th | 31.0% 231st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 145th | 0.23 325th |
The widest gap: UC San Diego's defense (113th) against Seattle U's offense (214th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Seattle U 33, UC San Diego 35
- First-half margin
- UC San Diego by 2.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Projected second half
- Seattle U 38, UC San Diego 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Seattle U, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 29.7 scored, 38.7 allowed
- UC San Diego, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 2 · 36.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Seattle U
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will HeimbrodtF | 33 | 16.1 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Junseok YeoF | 30 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Tyler BostonG | 29 | 11.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Mason WilliamsG | 26 | 14.1 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 46% to play · 15+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Halvine DzellatC | 25 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 55% | |||||
| Maleek AringtonG | 24 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Ray AdamsF | 17 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Jaden BailesG | 12 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Missed the last game: Mason Williams (30 min a game).
UC San Diego
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo BeathF | 32 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Rahmir BarnoG | 30 | 13.1 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Treysen EaglestaffG | 27 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Alex ChaikinG | 22 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kayde DotsonG | 20 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jake HolmesF | 18 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tom BeattieG | 17 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Dimitrije VukicevicC | 17 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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