Who will win Idaho St vs Seattle U?
The model gives Seattle U a 87% chance to beat Idaho State, with a projected score of Seattle U 80, Idaho St 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle U | |||||
| HeimbrodtF · 32 min | 17.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 15+ 62% | |
| WilliamsG · 25 min | 15.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 15+ 50% | |
| BostonG · 28 min | 12.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 15+ 36% | |
| YeoF · 30 min | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 45% | |
 Idaho St | |||||
| MorrisG · 33 min | 15.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 15+ 52% | |
| JohnsonF · 22 min | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 37% | |
| DeMuynckF · 24 min | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 5+ 65% | |
| PalmerF · 18 min | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Will Heimbrodt: Idaho St 18%Seattle U 82%
The white mark is the call with him: Seattle U 87%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Seattle U without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle U | ||||
| Will Heimbrodt | 2.1 | 82% | −5 | 69–79 |
| Halvine Dzellat | 1.1 | 84% | −3 | 69–80 |
| Maleek Arington | 0.8 | 85% | −2 | 68–80 |
| Junseok Yeo | 0.7 | 85% | −2 | 68–80 |
Change is in Seattle U's win chance, in points. Scores read Idaho St, then Seattle U. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Idaho St | Seattle U | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.6 254th | 102.3 214th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.0 338th | 103.5 101st |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 351st | 49.7% 240th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.9% 142nd | 52.1% 293rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 247th | 19.3% 307th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.6% 78th | 30.1% 275th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 55th | 0.27 145th |
The widest gap: Seattle U's defense (101st) against Idaho St's offense (254th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Idaho St 31, Seattle U 38
- First-half margin
- Seattle U by 6.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Projected second half
- Idaho St 37, Seattle U 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Idaho St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.3 scored, 40.7 allowed
- Seattle U, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 29.7 scored, 38.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Idaho St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaCarhy MorrisG | 33 | 15.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Kenyon DeMuynckF | 24 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Malachi JohnsonF | 22 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Nathan AmoranG | 20 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ike PalmerF | 18 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Ty VirgilG | 17 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Eli GarnerG | 16 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Joven DulayG | 15 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
Seattle U
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will HeimbrodtF | 32 | 17.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Junseok YeoF | 30 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Tyler BostonG | 28 | 12.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Mason WilliamsG | 25 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 46% to play · 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Halvine DzellatC | 25 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Maleek AringtonG | 24 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ray AdamsF | 17 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Jaden BailesG | 13 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Missed the last game: Mason Williams (30 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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