Idaho St 58, Utah State 94
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:30 PM ET at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum. Idaho St our rank 309 · 0-3; Utah State our rank 54 · 3-0.
Who won Idaho St vs Utah State?
Final: Utah State 94, Idaho State 58. Before tip-off the model gave Utah State a 95% chance to win, with a projected margin of 20.2 points for Utah State. Kingston Tosi scored 26 for Utah State; MaCarhy Morris had 15 for Idaho St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Mason Falslev: Idaho St 10%Utah State 90%
The white mark is the call with him: Utah State 95%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Utah State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | ||||
| Mason Falslev | 4.6 | 90% | −5 | 61–76 |
| Dallin Hall | 3.3 | 92% | −3 | 60–77 |
| Will Hornseth | 3.0 | 92% | −3 | 60–77 |
| Karson Templin | 2.3 | 93% | −2 | 60–78 |
Change is in Utah State's win chance, in points. Scores read Idaho St, then Utah State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Idaho St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Utah State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Idaho St | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.6 254th | 117.4 27th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.0 338th | 102.1 87th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 351st | 53.0% 40th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.9% 142nd | 49.3% 95th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 247th | 16.3% 17th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.6% 78th | 32.0% 164th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 55th | 0.24 303rd |
The widest gap: Utah State's offense (27th) against Idaho St's defense (338th), of 365 teams.
First half
Utah State led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.1 points and the total by 1.6.
- At halftime
- Idaho St 29, Utah State 37
- Projected halftime score
- Idaho St 27, Utah State 38
- First-half margin
- Utah State by 11.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Idaho St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaCarhy MorrisG | 33 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenyon DeMuynckF | 27 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Nathan AmoranG | 22 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty VirgilG | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Malachi JohnsonF | 19 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Eli GarnerG | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ike PalmerF | 14 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Eyal HarelG | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quin PattersonF | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Utah State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin HallG | 34 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Solomon CallaghanG | 31 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Kingston TosiF | 27 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Will HornsethF | 26 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Mason FalslevG | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| Karson TemplinF | 20 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Brayden BoeG | 17 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ BatesG | 14 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sean FeltsC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |