Who won Arizona vs UCLA?
Final: UCLA 84, Arizona 75. Before tip-off the model gave UCLA a 38% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 3.6 points for Arizona. Trent Perry scored 21 for UCLA; Ivan Kharchenkov had 38 for Arizona.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Motiejus Krivas: Arizona 43%UCLA 57%
The white mark is the call with him: Arizona 62%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arizona without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona | ||||
| Motiejus Krivas | 5.7 | 43% | −19 | 68–70 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov | 5.7 | 43% | −19 | 68–70 |
| Derek Dixon | 3.6 | 50% | −12 | 69–69 |
| JJ Mandaquit | 2.7 | 53% | −9 | 69–68 |
 UCLA | ||||
| Eric Dailey Jr. | 4.3 | 74% | +12 | 73–65 |
| Jaylen Petty | 4.0 | 73% | +11 | 73–65 |
| Trent Perry | 4.0 | 73% | +11 | 73–65 |
| Xavier Booker | 2.4 | 69% | +7 | 72–66 |
Change is in Arizona's win chance, in points. Scores read Arizona, then UCLA. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Arizona | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 119.6 16th | 118.2 21st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.0 28th | 94.1 20th |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 55th | 70.6 209th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.2% 76th | 53.4% 25th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 177th | 46.5% 8th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.9% 55th | 16.1% 14th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.4% 143rd | 33.7% 72nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 72nd | 0.26 177th |
First half
UCLA led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 16.0 points and the total by 7.3.
- At halftime
- Arizona 29, UCLA 43
- Projected halftime score
- Arizona 33, UCLA 31
- First-half margin
- Arizona by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan KharchenkovF | 38 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 2 |
| Derek DixonG | 38 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| JJ MandaquitG | 32 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Motiejus KrivasC | 31 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Caleb HoltG | 27 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Maksim BrnovicF | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Cameron HolmesG | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryce JamesG | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ugnius JaruseviciusF | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
UCLA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola KusturicaF | 39 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaylen PettyG | 38 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| Eric Dailey Jr.F | 34 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
| Trent PerryG | 25 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Azavier RobinsonG | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier BookerC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Sergej MacuraF | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Joe Philon IIIF | 12 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon WilliamsF | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |