Who won UAB vs McNeese?
Final: McNeese 99, UAB 78. Before tip-off the model gave McNeese a 63% chance to win, with a projected margin of 4.1 points for McNeese. Larry Johnson scored 31 for McNeese; Elijah Duval had 15 for UAB.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Larry Johnson: UAB 47%McNeese 53%
The white mark is the call with him: McNeese 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | McNeese without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 McNeese | ||||
| Larry Johnson | 3.3 | 53% | −10 | 68–69 |
| Jaylon Dean-Vines | 1.5 | 58% | −5 | 67–70 |
| Corey Chest | 1.3 | 59% | −4 | 67–70 |
| Alier Maluk | 1.0 | 60% | −3 | 67–70 |
 UAB | ||||
| Deuce Jones | 0.9 | 66% | +3 | 66–71 |
| T.J. Caldwell | 0.5 | 65% | +2 | 66–71 |
Change is in McNeese's win chance, in points. Scores read UAB, then McNeese. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UAB | McNeese | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.2 176th | 111.3 81st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.9 222nd | 107.0 151st |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 79th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.1% 329th | 52.6% 55th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.8% 272nd | 50.9% 205th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 255th | 17.7% 137th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 128th | 34.4% 41st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 56th | 0.26 184th |
The widest gap: McNeese's offense (81st) against UAB's defense (222nd), of 365 teams.
First half
McNeese led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 6.8 points and the total by 15.0.
- At halftime
- UAB 35, McNeese 44
- Projected halftime score
- UAB 31, McNeese 33
- First-half margin
- McNeese by 2.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
UAB
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce JonesG | 31 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeremy ElyzeeG | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Justyn FernandezG | 26 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Elijah DuvalG | 25 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Salim LondonG | 21 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| T.J. CaldwellG | 19 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Aleks AlstonF | 14 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt MboleC | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Korie CorbettG | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
McNeese
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah MooreG | 34 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Larry JohnsonG | 30 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Dellquan WarrenG | 27 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Alier MalukF | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian NituF | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Corey ChestF | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Dean-VinesG | 18 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Jerrell ColbertF | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ RembertG | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |