Who will win McNeese vs Texas St?
The model gives McNeese a 54% chance to beat Texas State, with a projected score of McNeese 76, Texas St 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 McNeese | |||||
| JohnsonG · 28 min | 20.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 20+ 53% | |
| MooreG · 30 min | 12.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 15+ 34% | |
| NituF · 22 min | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 10+ 41% | |
| Dean-VinesG · 22 min | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 36% | |
 Texas St | |||||
| HallF · 28 min | 15.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 15+ 49% | |
| DjobetF · 27 min | 15.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 15+ 49% | |
| PernellG · 24 min | 10.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 54% | |
| FieldsC · 24 min | 10.6 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Larry Johnson: McNeese 41%Texas St 59%
The white mark is the call with him: McNeese 54%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | McNeese without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McNeese | ||||
| Larry Johnson | 3.3 | 41% | −13 | 75–77 |
| Jaylon Dean-Vines | 1.5 | 48% | −6 | 76–76 |
| Corey Chest | 1.3 | 49% | −5 | 76–76 |
| Alier Maluk | 1.0 | 50% | −4 | 76–76 |
| Texas St | ||||
| DJ Hall | 1.6 | 60% | +6 | 77–74 |
| Quel'Ron House | 1.1 | 59% | +5 | 77–75 |
| Paul Djobet | 1.1 | 58% | +4 | 77–75 |
Change is in McNeese's win chance, in points. Scores read McNeese, then Texas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
McNeese 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 135-87vs College of Biblical Studies
- Nov 5L 67-77at North TexasDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 2W 99-78vs UAB
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 100.3 and allowing 80.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Texas St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 72-65at UT Rio GrandeCovered −5.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 5W 135-66vs Howard Payne
- Nov 2W 67-55vs Texas A&M-CC
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.3 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| McNeese | Texas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.3 81st | 106.1 142nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.0 151st | 108.1 176th |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.6% 55th | 52.4% 63rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.9% 205th | 50.1% 157th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.7% 137th | 19.2% 304th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 41st | 33.1% 104th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 184th | 0.26 173rd |
The widest gap: McNeese's offense (81st) against Texas St's defense (176th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- McNeese 36, Texas St 35
- First-half margin
- McNeese by 0.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Projected second half
- McNeese 40, Texas St 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- McNeese, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 46.3 scored, 37.7 allowed
- Texas St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
McNeese
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah MooreG | 30 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Larry JohnsonG | 28 | 20.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 20+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Dellquan WarrenG | 26 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Christian NituF | 22 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Alier MalukF | 22 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jaylon Dean-VinesG | 22 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Jerrell ColbertF | 20 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Corey ChestF | 16 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jerrell Colbert (22 min a game).
Texas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ HallF | 28 | 15.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Paul DjobetF | 27 | 15.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kaden GumbsG | 25 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Robert FieldsC | 24 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Dimp PernellG | 24 | 10.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Quel'Ron HouseG | 16 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| KJ YoungerG | 13 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| David AbisogunF | 10 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 56% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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