Who will win Butler vs Nebraska?
The model gives Nebraska a 83% chance to beat Butler, with a projected score of Nebraska 82, Butler 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nebraska | |||||
| SandfortF · 29 min | 19.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 20+ 46% | |
| FragerF · 26 min | 11.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| WilkinsonF · 17 min | 10.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 52% | |
| KapkeF · 18 min | 9.0 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 41% | |
 Butler | |||||
| JacksonG · 30 min | 13.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 15+ 42% | |
| DjulovicF · 24 min | 12.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 64% | |
| KlafkeG · 28 min | 12.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| AndersonF · 24 min | 12.0 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Pryce Sandfort: Butler 30%Nebraska 70%
The white mark is the call with him: Nebraska 83%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Nebraska without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | ||||
| Pryce Sandfort | 4.9 | 70% | −13 | 74–80 |
| Braden Frager | 3.9 | 73% | −10 | 74–80 |
| Cale Jacobsen | 3.2 | 75% | −8 | 73–81 |
| Trevan Leonhardt | 2.3 | 77% | −6 | 73–81 |
| Butler | ||||
| Eduardo Klafke | 2.5 | 88% | +5 | 70–84 |
| Treyson Anderson | 2.4 | 88% | +5 | 71–84 |
| Drayton Jones | 2.2 | 88% | +5 | 71–84 |
| Jalen Jackson | 2.0 | 87% | +4 | 71–83 |
Change is in Nebraska's win chance, in points. Scores read Butler, then Nebraska. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Butler 2-1WWL
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.0 and allowing 75.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Nebraska 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 94-60vs LindenwoodDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 7W 67-58vs ProvidenceCovered −2.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 2W 106-64vs Le Moyne
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 60.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Butler | Nebraska | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.8 76th | 118.2 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.9 82nd | 94.6 21st |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 33rd | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.9% 43rd | 52.8% 48th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 146th | 47.8% 28th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 270th | 17.1% 76th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.0% 21st | 31.1% 226th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 323rd | 0.28 105th |
The widest gap: Nebraska's offense (19th) against Butler's defense (82nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Butler 33, Nebraska 39
- First-half margin
- Nebraska by 5.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.3
- Projected second half
- Butler 39, Nebraska 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Butler, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
- Nebraska, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 29.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Butler
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen JacksonG | 30 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Eduardo KlafkeG | 28 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Treyson AndersonF | 24 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Samis CalderonF | 24 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Asim DjulovicF | 24 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Drayton JonesC | 22 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Jordan EllerbeeG | 20 | 10.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Samu AdlerG | 18 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
Nebraska
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce SandfortF | 29 | 19.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| 20+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ threes 56% | |||||
| Braden FragerF | 26 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Cale JacobsenG | 26 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Trevan LeonhardtG | 20 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Boden KapkeF | 18 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Taj DeGourvilleG | 18 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Damon WilkinsonF | 17 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Jacob LanierG | 15 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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