Who will win Pitt vs Butler?
The model gives Butler a 62% chance to beat Pittsburgh, with a projected score of Butler 77, Pitt 74. The spread is Butler −3.5, with an over/under of 160.5. The model agrees with the spread, and projects 151 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Butler | |||||
| JacksonG · 31 min | 15.1 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 15+ 50% | |
| DjulovicF · 24 min | 13.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 15+ 38% | |
| KlafkeG · 28 min | 13.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 15+ 37% | |
| AndersonF · 24 min | 12.9 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 15+ 36% | |
 Pitt | |||||
| SumlerG · 34 min | 16.2 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 15+ 56% | |
| NdongoF · 28 min | 14.6 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 15+ 46% | |
| FosterF · 27 min | 12.7 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| PowellG · 35 min | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Eduardo Klafke: Pitt 46%Butler 54%
The white mark is the call with him: Butler 62%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Butler without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler | ||||
| Eduardo Klafke | 2.5 | 54% | −8 | 75–76 |
| Treyson Anderson | 2.4 | 54% | −8 | 75–76 |
| Drayton Jones | 2.2 | 55% | −7 | 75–76 |
| Jalen Jackson | 2.0 | 55% | −7 | 75–76 |
| Pitt | ||||
| Jonathan Powell | 2.5 | 70% | +8 | 73–79 |
| Baye Ndongo | 2.4 | 70% | +8 | 73–78 |
| Naithan George | 2.1 | 69% | +7 | 73–78 |
| A'lahn Sumler | 2.1 | 69% | +7 | 73–78 |
Change is in Butler's win chance, in points. Scores read Pitt, then Butler. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Butler −3.5 | 160.5 |
| Model | Butler −3.5 | 151.0 |
| Gap | None | 9.5 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pitt | Butler | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.9 90th | 111.8 76th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.1 58th | 101.9 82nd |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.8% 231st | 52.9% 43rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 88th | 50.0% 146th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.0% 68th | 18.8% 270th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.0% 108th | 35.0% 21st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 31st | 0.23 323rd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Pitt 34, Butler 36
- First-half margin
- Butler by 1.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Projected second half
- Pitt 39, Butler 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Pitt, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 36.3 allowed
- Butler, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Pitt
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan PowellG | 35 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| A'lahn SumlerG | 34 | 16.2 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Baye NdongoF | 28 | 14.6 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 10+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Chase FosterF | 27 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Naithan GeorgeG | 27 | 9.6 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 53% · 5+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jalil BetheaG | 18 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Akir SouareF | 16 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
| Armani MightyC | 11 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
Butler
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen JacksonG | 31 | 15.1 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Eduardo KlafkeG | 28 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Treyson AndersonF | 24 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Samis CalderonF | 24 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Asim DjulovicF | 24 | 13.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Drayton JonesC | 22 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Jordan EllerbeeG | 20 | 11.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Samu AdlerG | 18 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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