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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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UIC at Saint Mary's

Friday, November 13, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Pavilion. UIC our rank 97 · 3-0; Saint Mary's our rank 62 · 2-1.

Who will win UIC vs Saint Mary's?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Saint Mary's a 79% chance to beat UIC, with a projected score of Saint Mary's 79, UIC 70. The spread is Saint Mary's −5.5, with an over/under of 151.5. The model makes it Saint Mary's by 9.2, 3.7 points toward Saint Mary's, and projects 150 total points.

To winSaint Mary's 79%UIC 21%
Projected score70–79UIC, then Saint Mary's
Margin9.2Saint Mary's · line: Saint Mary's 5.5
Total149.5line: 151.5
First half33–38Saint Mary's ahead 68%
UIC by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Saint Mary's by 40Model: Saint Mary's by 9.2Line: Saint Mary's by 5.5UIC by 20Evenby 20Saint Mary's by 40Model: Saint Mary's by 9.2Line: Saint Mary's by 5.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Saint Mary's
DentG · 35 min17.02.55.015+ 60%
JuzenasG · 33 min14.27.83.015+ 44%
Dent-SmithG · 24 min11.31.92.410+ 57%
ZougrisF · 22 min8.75.41.610+ 39%
UIC
Washington Jr.G · 28 min12.75.71.415+ 35%
Henderson IIG · 24 min11.51.41.810+ 59%
LoweryG · 28 min9.05.72.810+ 41%
GealerG · 26 min8.51.72.110+ 37%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Joshua Dent: UIC 32%Saint Mary's 68%

The white mark is the call with him: Saint Mary's 79%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsSaint Mary's without himChangeProjected score
Saint Mary's
Joshua Dent4.068%−1172–77
Mantas Juzenas3.071%−872–78
Vangelis Zougris2.373%−671–78
Thomas Ndong2.173%−671–78
UIC
Benny Gealer1.984%+569–80
Rashund Washington Jr.1.983%+469–80
Mekhi Lowery1.883%+469–80
Ahmad Henderson II1.583%+469–80

Change is in Saint Mary's's win chance, in points. Scores read UIC, then Saint Mary's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineSaint Mary's −5.5151.5
ModelSaint Mary's −9.2149.5
Gap3.7 toward Saint Mary's2 lower

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 2 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 51.6% of 3,317 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    UIC 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 9W 82-72vs UNC GreensboroDidn't cover −19.5 · Over 148.5
    2. Nov 6W 79-56vs Robert MorrisCovered −10.5 · Under 143.5
    3. Nov 2W 96-47vs St. Francis (IL)
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 85.7 and allowing 58.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    Saint Mary's 2-1WWL

    1. Nov 8L 95-96vs NevadaCovered +1.5 · Over 146.5
    2. Nov 4W 105-64vs N Dakota StCovered −13.5 · Over 148.5
    3. Nov 2W 90-85vs Illinois St
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 96.7 and allowing 81.7
    Against the spread, this season
    2–0
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    UICSaint Mary's
    Points scored per 100 possessions109.3 97th115.0 53rd
    Points allowed per 100103.1 97th101.5 76th
    Possessions a game70.0 266th69.9 276th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)50.4% 192nd54.2% 13th
    Opponents' shooting51.2% 239th52.8% 325th
    Turnovers, share of possessions17.1% 79th16.0% 11th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses32.3% 149th30.3% 270th
    Free throws per shot0.27 129th0.22 342nd

    The widest gap: Saint Mary's's offense (53rd) against UIC's defense (97th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    UIC 33, Saint Mary's 38
    First-half margin
    Saint Mary's by 5.0
    First-half points, both teams
    70.1
    Projected second half
    UIC 38, Saint Mary's 42
    Second-half points, both teams
    79.4
    Tied at the half
    4%
    UIC, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 31.7 allowed
    Saint Mary's, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 35.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    UIC

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Mekhi LoweryG289.05.72.80.0
    10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 51%
    Rashund Washington Jr.G2812.75.71.40.9
    15+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 55%
    Jayce NathanielF267.64.60.90.7
    5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46%
    Benny GealerG268.51.72.12.0
    10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 53%
    Gabe CuppsG256.42.52.40.7
    5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 50%
    Ahmad Henderson IIG2411.51.41.81.6
    10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 44%
    Lucas ScrogginsF186.74.10.30.0
    5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 55%
    Elijah GarrettG153.11.50.70.5
    5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 36%

    Saint Mary's

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Joshua DentG3517.02.55.02.2
    15+ pts 60% · 5+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 58%
    Mantas JuzenasG3314.27.83.02.1
    15+ pts 44% · 8+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 55%
    Jeremy Dent-SmithG2411.31.92.41.7
    10+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 46%
    Vangelis ZougrisF228.75.41.60.1
    10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 44%
    Thomas NdongF217.26.40.60.1
    5+ pts 67% · 7+ reb 45%
    Rory HawkeG205.22.50.90.7
    5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 48%
    Darius BivinsG208.01.92.40.6
    10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45%
    Jazz GardnerC165.53.30.80.2
    5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 21%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    2. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    UIC next: vs Chicago St, Wed, Nov 18 · 98%Saint Mary's next: vs Portland St, Mon, Nov 16 · 96%UIC: schedule and oddsSaint Mary's: schedule and odds