Georgia at North Carolina
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Dean E. Smith Center. Georgia our rank 57 · 3-0; North Carolina our rank 34 · 3-0.
Who will win Georgia vs North Carolina?
The model gives North Carolina a 76% chance to beat Georgia, with a projected score of North Carolina 83, Georgia 76. The spread is North Carolina −4.5, with an over/under of 163.5. The model makes it North Carolina by 7.8, 3.3 points toward North Carolina, and projects 159 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | |||||
| BrownG · 28 min | 17.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 15+ 63% | |
| AbleG · 24 min | 11.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 57% | |
| AdamsF · 21 min | 9.8 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| StevensonF · 26 min | 8.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 39% | |
| Georgia | |||||
| CainG · 31 min | 13.5 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 15+ 40% | |
| CatchingsF · 26 min | 11.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 10+ 60% | |
| MillenderG · 29 min | 11.1 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| StaggF · 23 min | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 37% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Terrence Brown: Georgia 35%North Carolina 65%
The white mark is the call with him: North Carolina 76%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | North Carolina without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | ||||
| Terrence Brown | 3.4 | 65% | −11 | 77–82 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 3.1 | 66% | −10 | 77–82 |
| Matt Able | 3.0 | 66% | −10 | 77–82 |
| Neo Avdalas | 2.7 | 68% | −8 | 77–82 |
| Georgia | ||||
| Blue Cain | 3.5 | 84% | +8 | 74–85 |
| Marcus Millender | 2.7 | 83% | +7 | 74–85 |
| Kanon Catchings | 2.5 | 82% | +6 | 74–85 |
| James Scott | 2.4 | 82% | +6 | 74–85 |
Change is in North Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read Georgia, then North Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | North Carolina −4.5 | 163.5 |
| Model | North Carolina −7.8 | 159.1 |
| Gap | 3.3 toward North Carolina | 4.4 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 2 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 51.6% of 3,317 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Georgia 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 80-72vs FGCUDidn't cover −22.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 6W 91-77vs PresbyterianDidn't cover −24.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 2W 78-62vs NC Central
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 70.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
North Carolina 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-63vs WyomingCovered −12.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 6W 109-70vs WoffordCovered −21.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 2W 80-72vs W Carolina
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.3 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Georgia | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.3 33rd | 116.1 36th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.0 86th | 97.2 31st |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 55th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.3% 267th | 51.4% 118th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.4% 305th | 48.1% 36th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.7% 8th | 16.4% 26th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.3% 93rd | 29.4% 312th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 160th | 0.27 132nd |
The widest gap: North Carolina's offense (36th) against Georgia's defense (86th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Georgia 35, North Carolina 39
- First-half margin
- North Carolina by 4.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.6
- Projected second half
- Georgia 40, North Carolina 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Georgia, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 35.0 allowed
- North Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.3 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Georgia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue CainG | 31 | 13.5 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Marcus MillenderG | 29 | 11.1 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| James ScottF | 27 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Kanon CatchingsF | 26 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kareem StaggF | 23 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Freddie Dilione VG | 20 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Brady DunlapF | 15 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Donovan Williams Jr.G | 13 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
North Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence BrownG | 28 | 17.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 3+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jarin StevensonF | 26 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Neo AvdalasG | 25 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Matt AbleG | 24 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Sayon KeitaC | 22 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Maximo AdamsF | 21 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Isaiah DenisG | 16 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jaydon YoungG | 14 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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