Marshall at North Carolina
Friday, November 20, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Dean E. Smith Center. Marshall our rank 165 · 1-2; North Carolina our rank 34 · 3-0.
Who will win Marshall vs North Carolina?
The model gives North Carolina a 98% chance to beat Marshall, with a projected score of North Carolina 89, Marshall 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | |||||
| BrownG · 26 min | 17.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 20+ 37% | |
| AbleG · 24 min | 11.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| AdamsF · 21 min | 10.2 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 49% | |
| StevensonF · 25 min | 8.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 40% | |
| Marshall | |||||
| OtshudiG · 30 min | 16.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 15+ 56% | |
| SlayG · 26 min | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 55% | |
| OshodiG · 19 min | 8.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 33% | |
| ManyuonG · 25 min | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Terrence Brown: Marshall 5%North Carolina 95%
The white mark is the call with him: North Carolina 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | North Carolina without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | ||||
| Terrence Brown | 3.4 | 95% | −3 | 68–87 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 3.1 | 96% | −2 | 68–87 |
| Matt Able | 3.0 | 96% | −2 | 68–87 |
| Neo Avdalas | 2.7 | 96% | −2 | 68–87 |
| Marshall | ||||
| Noah Otshudi | 1.0 | 98% | 0 | 66–89 |
| Colt Langdon | 0.7 | 98% | 0 | 66–89 |
| Khaman Maker | 0.6 | 98% | 0 | 66–89 |
| Emmanuel Manyuon | 0.5 | 98% | 0 | 66–89 |
Change is in North Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read Marshall, then North Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Marshall 1-2WLL
- Nov 9L 74-84at Ohio StateCovered +25.5 · Under 162.5
- Nov 7L 76-81vs ToledoDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 2W 92-65vs Buffalo
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 80.7 and allowing 76.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
North Carolina 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-63vs WyomingCovered −12.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 6W 109-70vs WoffordCovered −21.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 2W 80-72vs W Carolina
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.3 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marshall | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.8 188th | 116.1 36th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.6 165th | 97.2 31st |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 29th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.7% 97th | 51.4% 118th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 111th | 48.1% 36th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 244th | 16.4% 26th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 292nd | 29.4% 312th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 360th | 0.27 132nd |
The widest gap: North Carolina's defense (31st) against Marshall's offense (188th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marshall 30, North Carolina 42
- First-half margin
- North Carolina by 12.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.8
- Projected second half
- Marshall 36, North Carolina 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marshall, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.7 scored, 32.0 allowed
- North Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.3 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marshall
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah OtshudiG | 30 | 16.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Bryce SlayG | 26 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Emmanuel ManyuonG | 25 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Fazl OshodiG | 19 | 8.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 39% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Luke RasmussenG | 19 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Khaman MakerC | 18 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Erich HardingF | 18 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 50% | |||||
| Colt LangdonF | 15 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
North Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence BrownG | 26 | 17.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jarin StevensonF | 25 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Neo AvdalasG | 24 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 5+ ast 42% | |||||
| Matt AbleG | 24 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Sayon KeitaC | 22 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Maximo AdamsF | 21 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Isaiah DenisG | 16 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jaydon YoungG | 15 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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