W Carolina 72, North Carolina 80
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Dean E. Smith Center. W Carolina our rank 183 · 2-1; North Carolina our rank 34 · 3-0.
Who won W Carolina vs North Carolina?
Final: North Carolina 80, Western Carolina 72. Before tip-off the model gave North Carolina a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 27.7 points for North Carolina. Matt Able scored 18 for North Carolina; Jaxon Prunty had 18 for W Carolina.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Terrence Brown: W Carolina 2%North Carolina 98%
The white mark is the call with him: North Carolina 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | North Carolina without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | ||||
| Terrence Brown | 3.4 | 98% | −1 | 57–81 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 3.1 | 98% | −1 | 56–81 |
| Matt Able | 3.0 | 98% | −1 | 56–81 |
| Neo Avdalas | 2.7 | 98% | −1 | 56–81 |
| W Carolina | ||||
| Jaeden Roberts | 1.0 | 99% | 0 | 54–83 |
| Samuel Dada | 0.9 | 99% | 0 | 54–83 |
| Isaiah Manning | 0.8 | 99% | 0 | 55–83 |
| Travelle Bryson | 0.6 | 99% | 0 | 55–83 |
Change is in North Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read W Carolina, then North Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
W Carolina
No games yet this season: this is its first.
North Carolina
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Carolina | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.7 168th | 116.1 36th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.2 233rd | 97.2 31st |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 159th | 51.4% 118th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 81st | 48.1% 36th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.2% 15th | 16.4% 26th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 158th | 29.4% 312th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.33 4th | 0.27 132nd |
The widest gap: North Carolina's offense (36th) against W Carolina's defense (233rd), of 365 teams.
First half
North Carolina led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 6.2 points and the total by 4.5.
- At halftime
- W Carolina 30, North Carolina 39
- Projected halftime score
- W Carolina 25, North Carolina 40
- First-half margin
- North Carolina by 15.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
W Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon PruntyG | 32 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Malachi BrownG | 31 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Isaiah ManningG | 26 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob ZhuG | 24 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Jaeden RobertsG | 23 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Tayeshaun SmithF | 22 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Fola SodipoF | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel DadaF | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Travelle BrysonG | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
North Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neo AvdalasG | 31 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Jarin StevensonF | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence BrownG | 30 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt AbleG | 26 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Sayon KeitaC | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Maximo AdamsF | 18 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaydon YoungG | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex SamodurovF | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Angelo BrizziG | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |