Who won Purdue vs Gonzaga?
Final: Gonzaga 78, Purdue 72. Before tip-off the model gave Gonzaga a 39% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 3.4 points for Purdue. Davis Fogle scored 22 for Gonzaga; Daniel Jacobsen had 22 for Purdue.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Daniel Jacobsen: Purdue 46%Gonzaga 54%
The white mark is the call with him: Purdue 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Purdue without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Purdue | ||||
| Daniel Jacobsen | 4.5 | 46% | −15 | 68–69 |
| C.J. Cox | 3.8 | 49% | −12 | 69–69 |
| Gicarri Harris | 2.8 | 52% | −9 | 69–68 |
| Jack Benter | 2.4 | 53% | −8 | 69–68 |
 Gonzaga | ||||
| Davis Fogle | 4.8 | 75% | +14 | 73–65 |
| Braden Huff | 4.8 | 75% | +14 | 73–65 |
| Xaivian Lee | 4.0 | 73% | +12 | 72–65 |
| Isiah Harwell | 3.0 | 70% | +9 | 72–66 |
Change is in Purdue's win chance, in points. Scores read Purdue, then Gonzaga. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Purdue
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Gonzaga
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Purdue | Gonzaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 118.1 22nd | 119.8 15th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.0 71st | 98.0 39th |
| Possessions a game | 68.3 357th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.3% 201st | 53.0% 36th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 233rd | 50.9% 205th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 132nd | 16.5% 28th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 271st | 32.3% 149th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 85th | 0.31 25th |
The widest gap: Gonzaga's offense (15th) against Purdue's defense (71st), of 365 teams.
First half
Gonzaga led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 4.9 points and the total by 4.5.
- At halftime
- Purdue 33, Gonzaga 36
- Projected halftime score
- Purdue 33, Gonzaga 31
- First-half margin
- Purdue by 1.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Purdue
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. CoxG | 36 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Caden PierceF | 29 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Gicarri HarrisG | 28 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Daniel JacobsenC | 27 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Omer MayerG | 25 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Antione West JrG | 20 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jack BenterG | 11 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke ErtelG | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Enzo ShahrvinF | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Gonzaga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden HuffF | 36 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Davis FogleG | 34 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Xaivian LeeG | 29 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Izan AlmansaF | 29 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah HarwellG | 27 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Nathan De SousaG | 17 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Massamba DiopC | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Javon BennettG | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |