Who will win Ohio vs Purdue?
The model gives Purdue a 95% chance to beat Ohio, with a projected score of Purdue 86, Ohio 67. The spread is Purdue −19.5, with an over/under of 152.5. The model makes it Purdue by 19.0, 0.5 points toward Ohio, and projects 153 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Purdue | |||||
| JacobsenC · 30 min | 18.3 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 20+ 40% | |
| CoxG · 32 min | 11.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| West JrG · 24 min | 10.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 10+ 54% | |
| HarrisG · 22 min | 7.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 5+ 68% | |
 Ohio | |||||
| PaveletzkeG · 33 min | 13.3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 15+ 39% | |
| SimmonsF · 29 min | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 15+ 37% | |
| MitchellG · 27 min | 11.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| MakitanF · 31 min | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 10+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Daniel Jacobsen: Ohio 10%Purdue 90%
The white mark is the call with him: Purdue 95%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Purdue without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | ||||
| Daniel Jacobsen | 4.5 | 90% | −5 | 69–84 |
| C.J. Cox | 3.8 | 91% | −4 | 69–84 |
| Gicarri Harris | 2.8 | 92% | −3 | 69–85 |
| Jack Benter | 2.4 | 93% | −2 | 68–85 |
| Ohio | ||||
| Kolton Mitchell | 1.6 | 96% | +1 | 66–87 |
| Javan Simmons | 1.5 | 96% | +1 | 66–87 |
| Jackson Paveletzke | 1.2 | 96% | +1 | 67–87 |
Change is in Purdue's win chance, in points. Scores read Ohio, then Purdue. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Purdue −19.5 | 152.5 |
| Model | Purdue −19 | 153.3 |
| Gap | 0.5 toward Ohio | 0.8 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Ohio 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 80-70vs NC A&TDidn't cover −14.5 · Under 161.5
- Nov 2W 86-77at South Alabama
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 73.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Purdue 1-2LLW
- Nov 9W 76-59vs Illinois StCovered −15.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 6L 80-83vs ValparaisoDidn't cover −19.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2L 72-78vs Gonzaga
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.0 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ohio | Purdue | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.4 136th | 118.1 22nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.0 196th | 101.0 71st |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 95th | 68.3 357th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.0% 38th | 50.3% 201st |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 174th | 51.1% 233rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 223rd | 17.6% 132nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 179th | 30.2% 271st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 107th | 0.28 85th |
The widest gap: Purdue's offense (22nd) against Ohio's defense (196th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Ohio 31, Purdue 41
- First-half margin
- Purdue by 10.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.9
- Projected second half
- Ohio 36, Purdue 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Ohio, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 36.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Purdue, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Ohio
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson PaveletzkeG | 33 | 13.3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Dusan MakitanF | 31 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Javan SimmonsF | 29 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Siebe LedegenG | 27 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Kolton MitchellG | 27 | 11.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Kyler D'AugustinoG | 15 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Marin PetkovG | 11 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Zay MosleyF | 10 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 76% to play · 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Purdue
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. CoxG | 32 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Daniel JacobsenC | 30 | 18.3 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Caden PierceF | 28 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Antione West JrG | 24 | 10.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Gicarri HarrisG | 22 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jack BenterG | 21 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Omer MayerG | 20 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Luke ErtelG | 14 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…