Who will win Stanford vs UNLV?
The model gives Stanford a 54% chance to beat UNLV, with a projected score of Stanford 78, UNLV 76. The spread is Stanford −1.5, with an over/under of 153.5. The model makes it Stanford by 1.0, 0.5 points toward UNLV, and projects 154 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stanford | |||||
| TownsendF · 35 min | 19.4 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 20+ 46% | |
| PriceG · 31 min | 11.6 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| BlissG · 26 min | 11.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 10+ 59% | |
| CammannF · 23 min | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 35% | |
 UNLV | |||||
| MackG · 32 min | 16.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 15+ 56% | |
| JonesF · 34 min | 14.0 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 15+ 43% | |
| MilesG · 34 min | 13.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 15+ 42% | |
| WilliamsG · 27 min | 11.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nick Townsend: Stanford 37%UNLV 63%
The white mark is the call with him: Stanford 54%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Stanford without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | ||||
| Nick Townsend | 4.4 | 37% | −17 | 75–79 |
| Aidan Cammann | 2.0 | 46% | −8 | 77–77 |
| Austin Maurer | 1.7 | 47% | −7 | 77–77 |
| Christian Bliss | 1.7 | 47% | −7 | 77–77 |
| UNLV | ||||
| Tyrin Jones | 3.2 | 66% | +12 | 79–75 |
| Sebastian Mack | 1.6 | 60% | +6 | 78–76 |
| Cam Miles | 1.5 | 60% | +6 | 78–76 |
| Jeremy Foumena | 1.1 | 58% | +4 | 78–76 |
Change is in Stanford's win chance, in points. Scores read Stanford, then UNLV. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Stanford −1.5 | 153.5 |
| Model | Stanford −1 | 154.0 |
| Gap | 0.5 toward UNLV | 0.5 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Stanford | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.0 84th | 109.8 92nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.3 74th | 105.8 127th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 72.0 63rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 168th | 50.3% 199th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.7% 195th | 53.4% 340th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 209th | 18.3% 208th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.5% 307th | 33.8% 70th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 212th | 0.30 34th |
The widest gap: Stanford's offense (84th) against UNLV's defense (127th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Stanford 36, UNLV 36
- First-half margin
- Stanford by 0.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.3
- Projected second half
- Stanford 41, UNLV 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Stanford, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.0 scored, 30.7 allowed
- UNLV, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 44.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Stanford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick TownsendF | 35 | 19.4 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 0.9 |
| 20+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Julius PriceG | 31 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Christian BlissG | 26 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Aziz OlajuwonG | 24 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Aidan CammannF | 23 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Isaiah RogersG | 20 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Austin MaurerC | 19 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Evan StinsonF | 11 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
UNLV
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam MilesG | 34 | 13.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Tyrin JonesF | 34 | 14.0 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Sebastian MackG | 32 | 16.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Dontrez WilliamsG | 27 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Jackson KissF | 19 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Jeremy FoumenaC | 17 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
| Issac WilliamsonG | 16 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kota Suttle Jr.G | 14 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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