Who will win UNLV vs Kansas?
The model gives Kansas a 97% chance to beat UNLV, with a projected score of Kansas 88, UNLV 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas | |||||
| WhiteG · 27 min | 18.7 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 20+ 43% | |
| StokesG · 26 min | 14.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 15+ 43% | |
| Kaufman-RennF · 23 min | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 15+ 38% | |
| Blyden Jr.G · 26 min | 11.8 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 10+ 60% | |
 UNLV | |||||
| MackG · 30 min | 13.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 15+ 38% | |
| JonesF · 31 min | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 58% | |
| MilesG · 32 min | 11.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 9.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Trey Kaufman-Renn: UNLV 7%Kansas 93%
The white mark is the call with him: Kansas 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kansas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | ||||
| Trey Kaufman-Renn | 5.1 | 93% | −4 | 68–85 |
| Tre White | 4.9 | 94% | −3 | 68–86 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. | 3.8 | 95% | −2 | 68–86 |
| Keanu Dawes | 2.5 | 96% | −1 | 67–87 |
| UNLV | ||||
| Tyrin Jones | 3.2 | 99% | +2 | 64–90 |
| Sebastian Mack | 1.6 | 98% | +1 | 65–89 |
| Cam Miles | 1.5 | 98% | +1 | 65–89 |
| Jeremy Foumena | 1.1 | 98% | +1 | 65–89 |
Change is in Kansas's win chance, in points. Scores read UNLV, then Kansas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UNLV 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 88.5 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UNLV | Kansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.8 92nd | 120.5 9th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.8 127th | 87.4 1st |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.3% 199th | 54.2% 11th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.4% 340th | 46.7% 10th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 208th | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.8% 70th | 32.7% 123rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 34th | 0.24 277th |
The widest gap: Kansas's offense (9th) against UNLV's defense (127th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UNLV 30, Kansas 42
- First-half margin
- Kansas by 12.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.2
- Projected second half
- UNLV 36, Kansas 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UNLV, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 44.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
- Kansas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UNLV
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam MilesG | 32 | 11.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tyrin JonesF | 31 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Sebastian MackG | 30 | 13.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Dontrez WilliamsG | 26 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jackson KissF | 18 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Jeremy FoumenaC | 18 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Issac WilliamsonG | 17 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kota Suttle Jr.G | 14 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Kansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre WhiteG | 27 | 18.7 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Leroy Blyden Jr.G | 26 | 11.8 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 40% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Taylen KinneyG | 26 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Tyran StokesG | 26 | 14.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Trey Kaufman-RennF | 23 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Melvin Council Jr.G | 21 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 0.8 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 37% · 4+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Keanu DawesF | 16 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Christian ReevesC | 15 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Melvin Council Jr. (22 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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