Who will win Arkansas vs Indiana?
The model gives Arkansas a 51% chance to beat Indiana, with a projected score of Arkansas 79, Indiana 79.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arkansas | |||||
| WilkinsonG · 25 min | 14.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 15+ 48% | |
| Smith Jr.G · 27 min | 11.8 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| Richmond IIIG · 29 min | 11.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| BowserF · 28 min | 10.1 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 49% | |
 Indiana | |||||
| BurtonG · 27 min | 14.1 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 15+ 44% | |
| LindsayG · 24 min | 12.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 63% | |
| HarrisG · 27 min | 11.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| MustafG · 29 min | 11.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 10+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Billy Richmond III: Arkansas 35%Indiana 65%
The white mark is the call with him: Arkansas 51%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arkansas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | ||||
| Billy Richmond III | 4.1 | 35% | −16 | 77–81 |
| Jeremiah Wilkinson | 3.9 | 36% | −15 | 77–81 |
| Cooper Bowser | 3.1 | 39% | −12 | 78–80 |
| Jordan Smith Jr. | 1.8 | 44% | −7 | 78–80 |
| Indiana | ||||
| Aiden Sherrell | 3.7 | 66% | +15 | 81–77 |
| Darren Harris | 2.6 | 62% | +11 | 81–78 |
| Markus Burton | 2.5 | 61% | +10 | 80–78 |
| Sam Alexis | 2.3 | 61% | +10 | 80–78 |
Change is in Arkansas's win chance, in points. Scores read Arkansas, then Indiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Arkansas 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 76-53vs Robert MorrisDidn't cover −29.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 8L 72-91vs VirginiaDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 3W 106-61vs AR-Pine Bluff
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.7 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Indiana 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 90-66vs Tennessee TechDidn't cover −25.5 · Under 167.5
- Nov 9W 83-80vs SyracuseDidn't cover −5.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 5W 92-69vs BellarmineDidn't cover −30.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 2W 91-57vs E Illinois
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Arkansas | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 117.0 29th | 116.0 39th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.9 56th | 99.4 49th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.1% 135th | 51.2% 133rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 228th | 51.3% 244th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 166th | 17.9% 165th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.4% 17th | 35.4% 18th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 162nd | 0.30 32nd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Arkansas 37, Indiana 37
- First-half margin
- Arkansas by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.2
- Projected second half
- Arkansas 42, Indiana 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Arkansas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
- Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.2 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Arkansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Richmond IIIG | 29 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Cooper BowserF | 28 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Jordan Smith Jr.G | 27 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jeremiah WilkinsonG | 25 | 14.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Davion ThompsonG | 21 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Miikka MuurinenF | 20 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| JJ AndrewsF | 17 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Maper MakerF | 16 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaeden MustafG | 29 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Markus BurtonG | 27 | 14.1 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Darren HarrisG | 27 | 11.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Aiden SherrellF | 26 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Bryce LindsayG | 24 | 12.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Samet YigitogluC | 21 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Sam AlexisF | 18 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Trevor ManhertzF | 14 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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