Who will win Villanova vs Pitt?
The model gives Villanova a 56% chance to beat Pittsburgh, with a projected score of Villanova 74, Pitt 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villanova | |||||
| RoyalF · 30 min | 14.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 15+ 43% | |
| FiegenG · 28 min | 13.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 15+ 40% | |
| SuigoC · 28 min | 13.3 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 15+ 38% | |
| PerkinsG · 30 min | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 48% | |
 Pitt | |||||
| SumlerG · 34 min | 16.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 15+ 55% | |
| NdongoF · 28 min | 14.4 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 15+ 45% | |
| FosterF · 27 min | 12.6 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 15+ 34% | |
| PowellG · 36 min | 10.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tyler Perkins: Villanova 43%Pitt 57%
The white mark is the call with him: Villanova 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Villanova without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | ||||
| Tyler Perkins | 3.8 | 43% | −13 | 72–74 |
| Devin Royal | 3.6 | 43% | −13 | 72–74 |
| Jake Fiegen | 3.1 | 45% | −11 | 72–74 |
| Elijah Crawford | 2.8 | 46% | −10 | 72–73 |
| Pitt | ||||
| Jonathan Powell | 2.5 | 65% | +9 | 75–71 |
| Baye Ndongo | 2.4 | 65% | +9 | 75–71 |
| Naithan George | 2.1 | 64% | +8 | 75–71 |
| A'lahn Sumler | 2.1 | 64% | +8 | 75–71 |
Change is in Villanova's win chance, in points. Scores read Villanova, then Pitt. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Villanova 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 80-59vs La SalleCovered −20.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6W 95-66vs Holy CrossDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 1L 72-74vs Notre Dame
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.3 and allowing 66.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Villanova | Pitt | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 115.0 51st | 109.9 90th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.3 41st | 100.1 58th |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.0% 83rd | 49.8% 231st |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.8% 11th | 49.2% 88th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 185th | 17.0% 68th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 163rd | 33.0% 108th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 346th | 0.30 31st |
The widest gap: Villanova's defense (41st) against Pitt's offense (90th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Villanova 35, Pitt 34
- First-half margin
- Villanova by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.4
- Projected second half
- Villanova 39, Pitt 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Villanova, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 40.0 scored, 29.5 allowed
- Pitt, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 36.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Villanova
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler PerkinsG | 30 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Devin RoyalF | 30 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jake FiegenG | 28 | 13.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Luigi SuigoC | 28 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 9+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Elijah CrawfordG | 28 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Adam OumiddochG | 18 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Darryl Simmons IIG | 17 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Kwame Evans Jr.F | 14 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Pitt
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan PowellG | 36 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 42% | |||||
| A'lahn SumlerG | 34 | 16.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Baye NdongoF | 28 | 14.4 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 10+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Chase FosterF | 27 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Naithan GeorgeG | 27 | 9.5 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 52% · 5+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jalil BetheaG | 18 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Akir SouareF | 16 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
| Armani MightyC | 11 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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