Michigan St at Tennessee
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Food City Center. Michigan St AP 5, our rank 6 · 3-0; Tennessee AP 11, our rank 11 · 2-0.
Who will win Michigan St vs Tennessee?
The model gives Tennessee a 55% chance to beat Michigan State, with a projected score of Tennessee 73, Michigan St 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | |||||
| Hill Jr.G · 26 min | 14.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 15+ 44% | |
| HarrisG · 26 min | 10.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| HaralsonG · 19 min | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 45% | |
| Dai AmesG · 20 min | 9.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 44% | |
| Michigan St | |||||
| Fears Jr.G · 30 min | 13.7 | 2.6 | 8.3 | 15+ 41% | |
| JervisG · 27 min | 9.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 44% | |
| CarrF · 23 min | 9.5 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 10+ 44% | |
| ScottF · 28 min | 8.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Terrence Hill Jr.: Michigan St 60%Tennessee 40%
The white mark is the call with him: Tennessee 55%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Tennessee without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | ||||
| Terrence Hill Jr. | 3.9 | 40% | −15 | 74–71 |
| Juke Harris | 3.9 | 40% | −15 | 74–71 |
| DeWayne Brown II | 3.8 | 40% | −15 | 74–71 |
| Miles Rubin | 2.6 | 45% | −10 | 73–72 |
| Michigan St | ||||
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 5.5 | 76% | +21 | 69–76 |
| Jordan Scott | 3.9 | 70% | +15 | 70–75 |
| Coen Carr | 3.8 | 70% | +15 | 70–75 |
| Jesse McCulloch | 2.7 | 66% | +11 | 70–75 |
Change is in Tennessee's win chance, in points. Scores read Michigan St, then Tennessee. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Michigan St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 79-73vs DukeCovered +7.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 5W 91-61vs ToledoCovered −26.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 96-59vs Quinnipiac
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.7 and allowing 64.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Michigan St | Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 121.4 5th | 115.8 42nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.8 9th | 90.2 6th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.5% 23rd | 50.3% 203rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.0% 16th | 46.4% 6th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 224th | 18.8% 265th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 37th | 31.4% 201st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 50th | 0.26 168th |
The widest gap: Michigan St's defense (9th) against Tennessee's offense (42nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Michigan St 34, Tennessee 34
- First-half margin
- Tennessee by 0.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Projected second half
- Michigan St 38, Tennessee 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Michigan St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
- Tennessee, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 33.5 scored, 27.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Michigan St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr.G | 30 | 13.7 | 2.6 | 8.3 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 44% · 9+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jordan ScottF | 28 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Jasiah JervisG | 27 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Coen CarrF | 23 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Anton BonkeC | 18 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Jesse McCullochF | 16 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Cam WardF | 15 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
| Carlos Medlock Jr.G | 12 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Tennessee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWayne Brown IIF | 28 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 8+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Juke HarrisG | 26 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Terrence Hill Jr.G | 26 | 14.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Miles RubinC | 24 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Tyler LundbladeG | 23 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Dai Dai AmesG | 20 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jalen HaralsonG | 19 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Braedan LueF | 17 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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