Mississippi St at UCF
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Addition Financial Arena. Mississippi St our rank 51 · 3-0; UCF our rank 73 · 3-0.
Who will win Mississippi St vs UCF?
The model gives UCF a 51% chance to beat Mississippi State, with a projected score of UCF 81, Mississippi St 81.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | |||||
| JohnsonG · 33 min | 29.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 30+ 48% | |
| WalkerF · 23 min | 11.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| DeanG · 27 min | 9.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 10+ 48% | |
| PachecoG · 23 min | 8.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 37% | |
| Mississippi St | |||||
| HubbardG · 28 min | 18.2 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 20+ 39% | |
| JohnsonG · 21 min | 9.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| HamiltonF · 23 min | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 45% | |
| SimpkinsG · 21 min | 9.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 43% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dior Johnson: Mississippi St 63%UCF 37%
The white mark is the call with him: UCF 51%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UCF without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | ||||
| Dior Johnson | 3.8 | 37% | −14 | 82–79 |
| Arturo Dean | 2.0 | 43% | −8 | 82–80 |
| John Bol | 1.9 | 44% | −7 | 81–80 |
| Riley Kugel | 1.5 | 45% | −6 | 81–80 |
| Mississippi St | ||||
| Josh Hubbard | 3.3 | 64% | +13 | 79–83 |
| Tajuan Simpkins | 2.7 | 62% | +11 | 79–82 |
| Kimani Hamilton | 2.2 | 60% | +9 | 79–82 |
| RJ Johnson | 2.0 | 59% | +8 | 80–82 |
Change is in UCF's win chance, in points. Scores read Mississippi St, then UCF. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mississippi St 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 98-57vs Jackson StCovered −24.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 5W 82-44vs N'Western StCovered −21.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 106-88vs Tennessee Tech
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.3 and allowing 63.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mississippi St | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.1 36th | 115.7 47th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.3 64th | 104.6 109th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 73rd | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.7% 53rd | 51.2% 132nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.9% 139th | 53.0% 331st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 163rd | 15.9% 10th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.4% 4th | 29.3% 315th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 205th | 0.27 116th |
The widest gap: Mississippi St's offense (36th) against UCF's defense (109th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mississippi St 38, UCF 38
- First-half margin
- UCF by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.8
- Projected second half
- Mississippi St 43, UCF 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 85.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mississippi St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 51.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
- UCF, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mississippi St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh HubbardG | 28 | 18.2 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Kimani HamiltonF | 23 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Thomas BassongF | 22 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Tajuan SimpkinsG | 21 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| RJ JohnsonG | 21 | 9.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| ND OkaforC | 17 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| King GraceG | 15 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Kendyl SandersF | 15 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
UCF
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dior JohnsonG | 33 | 29.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| 30+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Arturo DeanG | 27 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Carmelo PachecoG | 23 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 32% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Lewis WalkerF | 23 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Isaiah MaloneF | 21 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| John BolC | 20 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 54% | |||||
| Riley KugelG | 19 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Cayden VaskoG | 14 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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