Who won FGCU vs UCF?
Final: UCF 96, Florida Gulf Coast 95. Before tip-off the model gave UCF a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 24.3 points for UCF. Dior Johnson scored 41 for UCF; Bryson Lucas had 25 for FGCU.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Dior Johnson: FGCU 5%UCF 95%
The white mark is the call with him: UCF 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UCF without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 UCF | ||||
| Dior Johnson | 3.8 | 95% | −3 | 60–81 |
| Arturo Dean | 2.0 | 97% | −1 | 59–82 |
| John Bol | 1.9 | 97% | −1 | 59–82 |
| Riley Kugel | 1.5 | 97% | −1 | 59–82 |
 FGCU | ||||
| Bryson Lucas | 1.1 | 98% | 0 | 58–83 |
| Chase Konieczny | 0.8 | 98% | 0 | 58–83 |
| Turk Brown III | 0.8 | 98% | 0 | 58–83 |
Change is in UCF's win chance, in points. Scores read FGCU, then UCF. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FGCU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.5 132nd | 115.7 47th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.7 215th | 104.6 109th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 215th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.8% 52nd | 51.2% 132nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 257th | 53.0% 331st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.7% 137th | 15.9% 10th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.3% 145th | 29.3% 315th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 157th | 0.27 116th |
The widest gap: UCF's offense (47th) against FGCU's defense (215th), of 365 teams.
First half
FGCU led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 15.4 points and the total by 7.9.
- At halftime
- FGCU 38, UCF 36
- Projected halftime score
- FGCU 26, UCF 40
- First-half margin
- UCF by 13.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
FGCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase KoniecznyF | 42 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Turk Brown IIIG | 37 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin HouserC | 31 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Bryson LucasF | 30 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Darren WilliamsG | 28 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Matt McCarthyG | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| BB WashingtonG | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| CJ OutlawF | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe TannerF | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
UCF
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dior JohnsonG | 35 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Lewis WalkerF | 34 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| John BolC | 31 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Carmelo PachecoG | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Arturo DeanG | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Cayden VaskoG | 16 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaiah MaloneF | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Riley KugelG | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mister DeanG | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |