Who will win FIU vs FGCU?
The model gives Florida Gulf Coast a 66% chance to beat Florida International, with a projected score of FGCU 79, FIU 75. The spread is FGCU −3.5, with an over/under of 158.5. The model makes it FGCU by 4.8, 1.3 points toward FGCU, and projects 154 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FGCU | |||||
| LucasF · 29 min | 15.5 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 15+ 52% | |
| WilliamsG · 29 min | 14.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 15+ 43% | |
| KoniecznyF · 28 min | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 15+ 34% | |
| HouserC · 22 min | 10.3 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 51% | |
 FIU | |||||
| Saine Jr.G · 33 min | 19.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 20+ 44% | |
| BeamerG · 26 min | 12.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 10+ 64% | |
| MendyG · 24 min | 9.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 42% | |
| N'DiayeF · 23 min | 8.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bryson Lucas: FIU 38%FGCU 62%
The white mark is the call with him: FGCU 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | FGCU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | ||||
| Bryson Lucas | 1.1 | 62% | −4 | 75–79 |
| Chase Konieczny | 0.8 | 63% | −3 | 75–79 |
| Turk Brown III | 0.8 | 63% | −3 | 75–79 |
| FIU | ||||
| Tijan Saine Jr. | 1.8 | 71% | +5 | 74–80 |
Change is in FGCU's win chance, in points. Scores read FIU, then FGCU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | FGCU −3.5 | 158.5 |
| Model | FGCU −4.8 | 154.1 |
| Gap | 1.3 toward FGCU | 4.4 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FIU 2-0WW
- Nov 6W 85-75vs West FloridaDidn't cover −16.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 2W 101-58vs New College
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FIU | FGCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.0 246th | 106.5 132nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.1 173rd | 109.7 215th |
| Possessions a game | 72.9 24th | 70.5 215th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.5% 252nd | 52.8% 52nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.1% 40th | 51.5% 257th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 185th | 17.7% 137th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 213th | 32.3% 145th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 136th | 0.26 157th |
The widest gap: FGCU's offense (132nd) against FIU's defense (173rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FIU 35, FGCU 37
- First-half margin
- FGCU by 2.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.3
- Projected second half
- FIU 40, FGCU 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FIU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 47.5 scored, 23.5 allowed
- FGCU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 38.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FIU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijan Saine Jr.G | 33 | 19.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| 20+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Corey CaulkerG | 28 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Trey BeamerG | 26 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Noah MendyG | 24 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Seydina N'DiayeF | 23 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Justin RomanG | 22 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Mason BlazerG | 20 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Huascar CuevasG | 14 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 47% to play · 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
FGCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson LucasF | 29 | 15.5 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Darren WilliamsG | 29 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 3.2 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 55% | |||||
| Chase KoniecznyF | 28 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Turk Brown IIIG | 25 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Justin HouserC | 22 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Elijah BrooksG | 18 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| CJ OutlawF | 16 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| BB WashingtonG | 16 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
Missed the last game: Justin Houser (26 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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