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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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Arizona at Auburn

Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Neville Arena. Arizona AP 12, our rank 17 · 2-1; Auburn our rank 14 · 2-0.

Who will win Arizona vs Auburn?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Auburn a 67% chance to beat Arizona, with a projected score of Auburn 81, Arizona 76. The spread is Arizona −3.5, with an over/under of 159.5. The model makes it Auburn by 4.9, 8.4 points toward Auburn, and projects 158 total points.

To winAuburn 67%Arizona 33%
Projected score76–81Arizona, then Auburn
Margin4.9Auburn · line: Arizona 3.5
Total157.8line: 159.5
First half36–38Auburn ahead 59%
Arizona by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Auburn by 30Model: Auburn by 4.9Line: Arizona by 3.5Arizona by 30by 10by 10Auburn by 30Model: Auburn by 4.9Line: Arizona by 3.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Auburn
PettifordG · 26 min16.81.93.015+ 60%
OvertonG · 26 min10.02.31.410+ 48%
Kimble IIIG · 17 min9.71.91.810+ 46%
OlsenF · 22 min8.72.80.810+ 38%
Arizona
KharchenkovF · 32 min17.76.23.120+ 37%
KrivasC · 27 min14.17.61.015+ 43%
HoltG · 25 min11.94.41.710+ 61%
DixonG · 31 min10.42.72.710+ 51%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Bukky Oboye: Arizona 45%Auburn 55%

The white mark is the call with him: Auburn 67%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsAuburn without himChangeProjected score
Auburn
Bukky Oboye3.555%−1278–80
Thomas Dowd3.356%−1178–80
Tahaad Pettiford3.356%−1178–80
Kevin Overton3.256%−1178–80
Arizona
Motiejus Krivas5.783%+1674–84
Ivan Kharchenkov5.783%+1674–84
Derek Dixon3.677%+1075–83
JJ Mandaquit2.775%+875–83

Change is in Auburn's win chance, in points. Scores read Arizona, then Auburn. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineArizona −3.5159.5
ModelAuburn −4.9157.8
Gap8.4 toward Auburn1.7 lower

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Arizona 2-1LWW

    1. Nov 10W 90-59vs N ArizonaDidn't cover −35.5 · Under 156.5
    2. Nov 5W 104-84vs Cal PolyDidn't cover −30.5 · Over 174.5
    3. Nov 2L 75-84vs UCLA
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 89.7 and allowing 75.7
    Against the spread, this season
    0–2
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    Auburn 2-0WW

    1. Nov 9W 75-53vs App StateDidn't cover −23.5 · Under 143.5
    2. Nov 4W 92-59vs SE Louisiana
    Last 2
    2–0, scoring 83.5 and allowing 56.0
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    ArizonaAuburn
    Points scored per 100 possessions119.6 16th120.2 12th
    Points allowed per 10096.0 28th95.9 27th
    Possessions a game72.2 55th70.7 196th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)52.2% 76th50.8% 154th
    Opponents' shooting50.4% 177th47.3% 19th
    Turnovers, share of possessions16.9% 55th17.8% 143rd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses32.4% 143rd34.5% 36th
    Free throws per shot0.28 72nd0.26 182nd

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Arizona 36, Auburn 38
    First-half margin
    Auburn by 2.7
    First-half points, both teams
    74.0
    Projected second half
    Arizona 41, Auburn 43
    Second-half points, both teams
    83.8
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Arizona, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 35.3 allowed
    Auburn, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 2 · 40.0 scored, 30.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Arizona

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Ivan KharchenkovF3217.76.23.11.0
    20+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 58%
    Derek DixonG3110.42.72.72.1
    10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 49%
    Motiejus KrivasC2714.17.61.00.1
    15+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 25%
    JJ MandaquitG265.32.33.70.9
    5+ pts 49% · 4+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 57%
    Caleb HoltG2511.94.41.71.2
    10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 49%
    Cameron HolmesG175.81.81.20.6
    5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 41%
    Bryce JamesG153.81.51.10.7
    5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 49%
    Maksim BrnovicF143.72.70.50.4
    5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 29%

    Auburn

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Thomas DowdF278.37.61.71.0
    10+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 48%
    Tahaad PettifordG2616.81.93.01.8
    15+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 49%
    Kevin OvertonG2610.02.31.41.9
    10+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ threes 52%
    Bukky OboyeC237.14.70.50.2
    5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 15%
    Adam OlsenF228.72.80.82.0
    10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 54%
    Caleb WilliamsG206.02.61.50.8
    5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 52%
    Narcisse NgoyC186.75.90.50.1
    5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 50%
    George Kimble IIIG179.71.91.81.1
    10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 52%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 6:30 PMprojected 74-77Pitt at Butler, men's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    3. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    Arizona next: vs UConn, Wed, Nov 18 · 56%Auburn next: vs West Virginia, Tue, Nov 17 · 70%Arizona: schedule and oddsAuburn: schedule and odds