Who will win UConn vs Arizona?
The model gives Arizona a 56% chance to beat UConn, with a projected score of Arizona 76, UConn 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona | |||||
| KharchenkovF · 32 min | 17.8 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 20+ 37% | |
| KrivasC · 28 min | 14.1 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 15+ 43% | |
| HoltG · 26 min | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 62% | |
| DixonG · 31 min | 10.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 10+ 51% | |
 UConn | |||||
| MullinsG · 26 min | 14.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 15+ 44% | |
| Demary Jr.G · 30 min | 12.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 10+ 65% | |
| HinesC · 23 min | 8.7 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 39% | |
| RossF · 28 min | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Motiejus Krivas: UConn 64%Arizona 36%
The white mark is the call with him: Arizona 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arizona without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | ||||
| Motiejus Krivas | 5.7 | 36% | −20 | 77–73 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov | 5.7 | 36% | −20 | 77–73 |
| Derek Dixon | 3.6 | 44% | −12 | 76–74 |
| JJ Mandaquit | 2.7 | 47% | −9 | 75–74 |
| UConn | ||||
| Silas Demary Jr. | 5.2 | 73% | +17 | 71–78 |
| Braylon Mullins | 3.8 | 69% | +13 | 72–78 |
| Jayden Ross | 3.7 | 69% | +13 | 72–78 |
| Na'jai Hines | 3.6 | 69% | +13 | 72–77 |
Change is in Arizona's win chance, in points. Scores read UConn, then Arizona. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UConn | Arizona | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 117.5 26th | 119.6 16th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.6 7th | 96.0 28th |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 307th | 72.2 55th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.6% 178th | 52.2% 76th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 27th | 50.4% 177th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 129th | 16.9% 55th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 58th | 32.4% 143rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 68th | 0.28 72nd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UConn 35, Arizona 36
- First-half margin
- Arizona by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.2
- Projected second half
- UConn 39, Arizona 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UConn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.3 scored, 24.0 allowed
- Arizona, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UConn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Demary Jr.G | 30 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 53% · 5+ ast 53% | |||||
| Jayden RossF | 28 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Braylon MullinsG | 26 | 14.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Na'jai HinesC | 23 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Colben LandrewF | 21 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Nik KhameniaF | 18 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Oskar GiltayC | 17 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| Junior CountyG | 16 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan KharchenkovF | 32 | 17.8 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Derek DixonG | 31 | 10.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Motiejus KrivasC | 28 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| JJ MandaquitG | 26 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Caleb HoltG | 26 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Cameron HolmesG | 17 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Bryce JamesG | 15 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Maksim BrnovicF | 14 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…