Gardner-Webb 46, UConn 86
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at PeoplesBank Arena. Gardner-Webb our rank 355 · 1-2; UConn AP 4, our rank 9 · 3-0.
Who won Gardner-Webb vs UConn?
Final: UConn 86, Gardner-Webb 46. Before tip-off the model gave UConn a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 35.4 points for UConn. Braylon Mullins scored 20 for UConn; Jacob Hudson had 9 for Gardner-Webb.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Silas Demary Jr.: Gardner-Webb 1%UConn 99%
The white mark is the call with him: UConn >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UConn without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | ||||
| Silas Demary Jr. | 5.2 | 99% | −1 | 52–83 |
| Braylon Mullins | 3.8 | >99% | 0 | 52–83 |
| Jayden Ross | 3.7 | >99% | 0 | 52–83 |
| Na'jai Hines | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 52–83 |
Change is in UConn's win chance, in points. Scores read Gardner-Webb, then UConn. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Gardner-Webb
No games yet this season: this is its first.
UConn
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Gardner-Webb | UConn | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.9 353rd | 117.5 26th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.7 332nd | 90.6 7th |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 95th | 69.5 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 334th | 50.6% 178th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.6% 316th | 47.8% 27th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.2% 346th | 17.6% 129th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.9% 358th | 34.0% 58th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 46th | 0.29 68th |
The widest gap: UConn's defense (7th) against Gardner-Webb's offense (353rd), of 365 teams.
First half
UConn led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 3.7.
- At halftime
- Gardner-Webb 24, UConn 43
- Projected halftime score
- Gardner-Webb 22, UConn 41
- First-half margin
- UConn by 19.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Gardner-Webb
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rue WellsG | 26 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Seth BrownG | 25 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jacob HudsonG | 24 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam NosakhareC | 22 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Mikhali PocknettF | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jackson SkipperF | 19 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Jamias FerereG | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ace TalbertG | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ginuwine TropnasC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
UConn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden RossF | 29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Nik KhameniaF | 26 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Silas Demary Jr.G | 26 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Braylon MullinsG | 25 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Na'jai HinesC | 22 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| Colben LandrewF | 22 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Oskar GiltayC | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior CountyG | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Nils MachowskiG | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |