Gardner-Webb at South Carolina
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Colonial Life Arena. Gardner-Webb our rank 355 · 1-2; South Carolina our rank 86 · 3-0.
Who will win Gardner-Webb vs South Carolina?
The model gives South Carolina a 99% chance to beat Gardner-Webb, with a projected score of South Carolina 85, Gardner-Webb 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | |||||
| FernandezF · 24 min | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 15+ 36% | |
| JohnsonG · 23 min | 11.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 10+ 61% | |
| MincyG · 26 min | 9.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 10+ 44% | |
| NecasF · 26 min | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 41% | |
| Gardner-Webb | |||||
| BrownG · 24 min | 9.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 45% | |
| PocknettF · 24 min | 8.2 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 10+ 35% | |
| HudsonG · 23 min | 7.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5+ 69% | |
| FerereG · 20 min | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kory Mincy: Gardner-Webb 2%South Carolina 98%
The white mark is the call with him: South Carolina 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | South Carolina without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | ||||
| Kory Mincy | 2.2 | 98% | −1 | 60–84 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas | 2.0 | 98% | −1 | 60–84 |
| Davion Hannah | 1.8 | 98% | −1 | 60–84 |
| Jakub Necas | 1.6 | 98% | −1 | 60–84 |
Change is in South Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read Gardner-Webb, then South Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Gardner-Webb 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.3 and allowing 83.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
South Carolina 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 77-41vs Saint Peter'sCovered −21.5 · Under 126.5
- Nov 8W 78-68vs SE MissouriDidn't cover −17.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 3W 81-55vs Stetson
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 54.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Gardner-Webb | South Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.9 353rd | 109.0 101st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.7 332nd | 100.2 62nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 95th | 69.7 292nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 334th | 50.7% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.6% 316th | 49.4% 103rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.2% 346th | 17.6% 121st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.9% 358th | 32.9% 113th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 46th | 0.31 22nd |
The widest gap: South Carolina's defense (62nd) against Gardner-Webb's offense (353rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Gardner-Webb 27, South Carolina 41
- First-half margin
- South Carolina by 14.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.5
- Projected second half
- Gardner-Webb 32, South Carolina 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Gardner-Webb, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 25.7 scored, 42.0 allowed
- South Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Gardner-Webb
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth BrownG | 24 | 9.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mikhali PocknettF | 24 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Sam NosakhareC | 23 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ reb 55% | |||||
| Jacob HudsonG | 23 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Rue WellsG | 21 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jamias FerereG | 20 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Ace TalbertG | 20 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jackson SkipperF | 20 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
South Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub NecasF | 26 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kory MincyG | 26 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Aleksas BieliauskasF | 24 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Camden HeideF | 24 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 46% to play · 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Juan FernandezF | 24 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Marcus JohnsonG | 23 | 11.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Shane BlakeneyG | 20 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Davion HannahG | 19 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Camden Heide (29 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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