Who will win LSU vs Gonzaga?
The model gives Gonzaga a 70% chance to beat LSU, with a projected score of Gonzaga 80, LSU 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gonzaga | |||||
| FogleG · 31 min | 17.7 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 20+ 37% | |
| HuffF · 30 min | 16.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 15+ 58% | |
| LeeG · 28 min | 11.6 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| DiopC · 26 min | 11.4 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 58% | |
 LSU | |||||
| DentG · 30 min | 11.7 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| Bashir Jr.G · 22 min | 11.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 57% | |
| RuzicC · 20 min | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 10+ 50% | |
| DioubateF · 23 min | 10.1 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 49% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Davis Fogle: LSU 46%Gonzaga 54%
The white mark is the call with him: Gonzaga 70%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Gonzaga without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | ||||
| Davis Fogle | 4.8 | 54% | −16 | 76–77 |
| Braden Huff | 4.8 | 54% | −16 | 76–77 |
| Xaivian Lee | 4.0 | 57% | −13 | 76–78 |
| Isiah Harwell | 3.0 | 60% | −10 | 75–78 |
| LSU | ||||
| Donovan Dent | 4.6 | 82% | +12 | 71–82 |
| Mo Dioubate | 3.5 | 80% | +10 | 72–81 |
| Skyy Clark | 3.5 | 80% | +10 | 72–81 |
| Divine Ugochukwu | 2.8 | 78% | +8 | 72–81 |
Change is in Gonzaga's win chance, in points. Scores read LSU, then Gonzaga. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
LSU 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 90-50vs Louisiana TechCovered −29.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 6W 92-51vs Texas SouthernCovered −35.5 · Under 161.5
- Nov 3W 100-57vs LSU N Orleans
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 94.0 and allowing 52.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Gonzaga 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 109-68vs New Mexico StCovered −29.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 2W 78-72vs Purdue
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 93.5 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| LSU | Gonzaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.5 64th | 119.8 15th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.0 18th | 98.0 39th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.9% 46th | 53.0% 36th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 1st | 50.9% 205th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 240th | 16.5% 28th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 138th | 32.3% 149th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 239th | 0.31 25th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- LSU 34, Gonzaga 38
- First-half margin
- Gonzaga by 3.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Projected second half
- LSU 39, Gonzaga 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- LSU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.0 scored, 21.7 allowed
- Gonzaga, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 37.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
LSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyy ClarkG | 31 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Donovan DentG | 30 | 11.7 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Saliou NiangF | 24 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Mo DioubateF | 23 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Divine UgochukwuG | 22 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Abdi Bashir Jr.G | 22 | 11.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 50% · 3+ threes 50% | |||||
| Michael RuzicC | 20 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Brice DessertC | 18 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 44% | |||||
Gonzaga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis FogleG | 31 | 17.7 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Braden HuffF | 30 | 16.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Xaivian LeeG | 28 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 56% · 5+ ast 49% | |||||
| Isiah HarwellG | 28 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Massamba DiopC | 26 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Izan AlmansaF | 21 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 44% to play · 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Javon BennettG | 17 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 40% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Nathan De SousaG | 14 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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