Montana St at Gonzaga
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:00 PM ET at McCarthey Athletic Center. Montana St our rank 118 · 1-2; Gonzaga AP 14, our rank 26 · 2-0.
Who will win Montana St vs Gonzaga?
The model gives Gonzaga a 96% chance to beat Montana State, with a projected score of Gonzaga 88, Montana St 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | |||||
| FogleG · 30 min | 18.3 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 20+ 40% | |
| HuffF · 28 min | 17.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 15+ 62% | |
| LeeG · 27 min | 12.1 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 10+ 63% | |
| DiopC · 25 min | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| Montana St | |||||
| DavisG · 27 min | 12.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 64% | |
| KingF · 28 min | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| MillerG · 29 min | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 10+ 50% | |
| HoldenG · 26 min | 6.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Davis Fogle: Montana St 10%Gonzaga 90%
The white mark is the call with him: Gonzaga 96%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Gonzaga without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | ||||
| Davis Fogle | 4.8 | 90% | −6 | 71–86 |
| Braden Huff | 4.8 | 90% | −6 | 71–86 |
| Xaivian Lee | 4.0 | 92% | −4 | 70–86 |
| Isiah Harwell | 3.0 | 93% | −3 | 70–87 |
| Montana St | ||||
| Jed Miller | 2.5 | 97% | +1 | 67–89 |
| Jeremiah Davis | 1.6 | 97% | +1 | 68–89 |
| Christian King | 1.4 | 97% | +1 | 68–89 |
| Jaden Steppe | 0.7 | 96% | 0 | 68–88 |
Change is in Gonzaga's win chance, in points. Scores read Montana St, then Gonzaga. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Montana St 1-2LWL
- Nov 12L 71-86at BYUCovered +21.5 · Under 162.5
- Nov 7W 83-70vs Long Beach StCovered −10.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 2L 74-84at Colorado St
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.0 and allowing 80.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Gonzaga 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 109-68vs New Mexico StCovered −29.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 2W 78-72vs Purdue
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 93.5 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Montana St | Gonzaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.8 105th | 119.8 15th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.3 159th | 98.0 39th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 238th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.3% 68th | 53.0% 36th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.7% 321st | 50.9% 205th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 97th | 16.5% 28th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 279th | 32.3% 149th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 301st | 0.31 25th |
The widest gap: Gonzaga's offense (15th) against Montana St's defense (159th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Montana St 31, Gonzaga 42
- First-half margin
- Gonzaga by 10.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Projected second half
- Montana St 37, Gonzaga 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Montana St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 39.7 allowed
- Gonzaga, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 37.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Montana St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed MillerG | 29 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Christian KingF | 28 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jeremiah DavisG | 27 | 12.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Cavin HoldenG | 26 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Howie KeeneG | 22 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Jaden SteppeF | 22 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Darnez SlaterG | 16 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| London PraytorF | 16 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Gonzaga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis FogleG | 30 | 18.3 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Braden HuffF | 28 | 17.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Xaivian LeeG | 27 | 12.1 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 58% · 5+ ast 58% | |||||
| Isiah HarwellG | 27 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Massamba DiopC | 25 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Izan AlmansaF | 20 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 44% to play · 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Javon BennettG | 17 | 9.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Nathan De SousaG | 14 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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