Liberty v S Illinois
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Curry Arena. Liberty our rank 136 · 1-1; S Illinois our rank 131 · 2-1.
Who will win Liberty vs S Illinois?
The model gives Liberty a 52% chance to beat Southern Illinois, with a projected score of Liberty 74, S Illinois 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | |||||
| CampbellG · 28 min | 12.7 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| SancombG · 25 min | 9.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| CampbellG · 22 min | 9.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 44% | |
| CarterG · 26 min | 7.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 10+ 32% | |
| S Illinois | |||||
| HaynesG · 32 min | 19.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 20+ 45% | |
| Mayo Jr.G · 34 min | 15.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 15+ 54% | |
| JacksonG · 31 min | 11.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| SuskoG · 19 min | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Cooper Campbell: Liberty 45%S Illinois 55%
The white mark is the call with him: Liberty 52%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Liberty without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | ||||
| Cooper Campbell | 1.6 | 45% | −7 | 74–75 |
| Zander Carter | 0.9 | 48% | −4 | 74–74 |
| Cobi Campbell | 0.7 | 49% | −3 | 74–74 |
| Eli Sancomb | 0.7 | 49% | −3 | 74–74 |
| S Illinois | ||||
| Damien Mayo Jr. | 2.0 | 60% | +8 | 75–73 |
| Jalen Haynes | 1.6 | 58% | +6 | 75–73 |
| Max Pikaar | 0.9 | 55% | +3 | 75–73 |
| Jaheem Webber | 0.8 | 55% | +3 | 75–74 |
Change is in Liberty's win chance, in points. Scores read Liberty, then S Illinois. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Liberty 1-1LW
- Nov 7W 113-54vs Boyce
- Nov 1L 57-72vs High Point
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 63.0
S Illinois 2-1WLW
- Nov 12W 80-70vs RichmondCovered +2.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 6L 93-100at Kansas CityDidn't cover +1.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 82-40vs Maryville (MO)
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Liberty | S Illinois | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.3 155th | 106.7 130th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.4 137th | 107.3 159th |
| Possessions a game | 69.0 333rd | 71.4 111th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.2% 279th | 52.4% 65th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.2% 238th | 52.1% 287th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 107th | 17.7% 136th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 287th | 31.6% 191st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 247th | 0.30 30th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Liberty 35, S Illinois 35
- First-half margin
- Liberty by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Projected second half
- Liberty 39, S Illinois 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Liberty, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 51.0 scored, 19.0 allowed
- S Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 32.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Liberty
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper CampbellG | 28 | 12.7 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Zander CarterG | 26 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Eli SancombG | 25 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Eli HerbertG | 23 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Cobi CampbellG | 22 | 9.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 39% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Matthew SheltonG | 19 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Reece DavidsonF | 16 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Ryan Jones Jr.F | 15 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
S Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Mayo Jr.G | 34 | 15.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jalen HaynesG | 32 | 19.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jeremiah JacksonG | 31 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Max PikaarF | 29 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jaheem WebberC | 21 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 44% | |||||
| Luke SuskoG | 19 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Luke WalshG | 15 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jaxson FugateG | 13 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Pietro Ranieri (16 min a game) and Jaxson Fugate (17 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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