UT Martin v S Illinois
Friday, November 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET at Elridge Blake Sports and Fitness Center. UT Martin our rank 198 · 1-2; S Illinois our rank 131 · 2-1.
Who will win UT Martin vs S Illinois?
The model gives Southern Illinois a 62% chance to beat UT Martin, with a projected score of S Illinois 77, UT Martin 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Illinois | |||||
| HaynesG · 31 min | 19.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 20+ 47% | |
| Mayo Jr.G · 33 min | 16.2 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 15+ 56% | |
| JacksonG · 30 min | 11.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| SuskoG · 19 min | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 31% | |
| UT Martin | |||||
| RemagenG · 27 min | 16.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 15+ 57% | |
| SavkovG · 25 min | 11.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 10+ 57% | |
| OnatG · 25 min | 11.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| VilkasF · 24 min | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Damien Mayo Jr.: UT Martin 44%S Illinois 56%
The white mark is the call with him: S Illinois 62%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | S Illinois without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Illinois | ||||
| Damien Mayo Jr. | 2.0 | 56% | −6 | 74–76 |
| Jalen Haynes | 1.6 | 57% | −5 | 74–76 |
| Max Pikaar | 0.9 | 59% | −3 | 73–76 |
| Jaheem Webber | 0.8 | 60% | −2 | 73–76 |
Change is in S Illinois's win chance, in points. Scores read UT Martin, then S Illinois. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UT Martin 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 82-65at Arkansas StCovered +5.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 7L 74-75at IU IndyDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 171.5
- Nov 2L 98-100at Tulane
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 84.7 and allowing 80.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
S Illinois 2-1WLW
- Nov 12W 80-70vs RichmondCovered +2.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 6L 93-100at Kansas CityDidn't cover +1.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 82-40vs Maryville (MO)
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UT Martin | S Illinois | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.1 199th | 106.7 130th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.5 211th | 107.3 159th |
| Possessions a game | 69.4 315th | 71.4 111th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.2% 11th | 52.4% 65th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.8% 13th | 52.1% 287th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.5% 316th | 17.7% 136th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.7% 13th | 31.6% 191st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 140th | 0.30 30th |
The widest gap: S Illinois's offense (130th) against UT Martin's defense (211th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UT Martin 34, S Illinois 36
- First-half margin
- S Illinois by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.2
- Projected second half
- UT Martin 39, S Illinois 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UT Martin, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 35.0 allowed
- S Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 32.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UT Martin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davi RemagenG | 27 | 16.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Sasha SavkovG | 25 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kaan OnatG | 25 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Arminas VilkasF | 24 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Filip PetkovskiG | 22 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Vladimir KhryapaF | 20 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Nikas StuknysG | 19 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Armandas BanceviciusF | 14 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
S Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Mayo Jr.G | 33 | 16.2 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jalen HaynesG | 31 | 19.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jeremiah JacksonG | 30 | 11.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Max PikaarF | 28 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jaheem WebberC | 21 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Luke SuskoG | 19 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Luke WalshG | 15 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jaxson FugateG | 13 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Missed the last game: Pietro Ranieri (16 min a game) and Jaxson Fugate (17 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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