Saint Louis at Saint Mary's
Friday, November 20, 2026, 11:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Pavilion. Saint Louis our rank 35 · 3-0; Saint Mary's our rank 62 · 2-1.
Who will win Saint Louis vs Saint Mary's?
The model gives Saint Louis a 51% chance to beat Saint Mary's, with a projected score of Saint Louis 80, Saint Mary's 80.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Louis | |||||
| GreenG · 29 min | 14.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 15+ 45% | |
| McCottryG · 23 min | 12.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 15+ 34% | |
| SharmaF · 26 min | 11.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| JonesG · 29 min | 11.5 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 10+ 59% | |
| Saint Mary's | |||||
| DentG · 37 min | 17.6 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 15+ 64% | |
| JuzenasG · 34 min | 14.7 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 15+ 47% | |
| Dent-SmithG · 25 min | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| ZougrisF · 23 min | 8.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Trey Green: Saint Louis 38%Saint Mary's 62%
The white mark is the call with him: Saint Louis 51%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Saint Louis without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Louis | ||||
| Trey Green | 3.3 | 38% | −13 | 78–81 |
| Kellen Thames | 3.2 | 39% | −12 | 78–81 |
| Amari McCottry | 3.1 | 39% | −12 | 78–81 |
| Quentin Jones | 2.9 | 40% | −11 | 79–81 |
| Saint Mary's | ||||
| Joshua Dent | 4.0 | 67% | +16 | 82–78 |
| Mantas Juzenas | 3.0 | 63% | +12 | 82–78 |
| Vangelis Zougris | 2.3 | 60% | +9 | 81–79 |
| Thomas Ndong | 2.1 | 59% | +8 | 81–79 |
Change is in Saint Louis's win chance, in points. Scores read Saint Louis, then Saint Mary's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Saint Louis 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 125-63vs N KentuckyCovered −23.5 · Over 168.5
- Nov 6W 90-84vs MissouriCovered +2.5 · Over 161.5
- Nov 2W 92-67vs Lehigh
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 102.3 and allowing 71.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Saint Mary's 2-1WWL
- Nov 8L 95-96vs NevadaCovered +1.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 4W 105-64vs N Dakota StCovered −13.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 2W 90-85vs Illinois St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 96.7 and allowing 81.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Saint Louis | Saint Mary's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 118.0 24th | 115.0 53rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.2 47th | 101.5 76th |
| Possessions a game | 73.1 18th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 56.7% 1st | 54.2% 13th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.0% 17th | 52.8% 325th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.4% 22nd | 16.0% 11th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.9% 327th | 30.3% 270th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 194th | 0.22 342nd |
The widest gap: Saint Louis's offense (24th) against Saint Mary's's defense (76th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Saint Louis 38, Saint Mary's 37
- First-half margin
- Saint Louis by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.9
- Projected second half
- Saint Louis 42, Saint Mary's 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Saint Louis, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 51.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
- Saint Mary's, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Saint Louis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey GreenG | 29 | 14.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 41% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Quentin JonesG | 29 | 11.5 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 57% | |||||
| Ishan SharmaF | 26 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Amari McCottryG | 23 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Alon MichaeliF | 19 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Kellen ThamesG | 17 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Jax KerrF | 10 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Saint Mary's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua DentG | 37 | 17.6 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 43% · 5+ ast 54% | |||||
| Mantas JuzenasG | 34 | 14.7 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 8+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Jeremy Dent-SmithG | 25 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Vangelis ZougrisF | 23 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Thomas NdongF | 21 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 7+ reb 45% | |||||
| Rory HawkeG | 20 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Darius BivinsG | 20 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jazz GardnerC | 16 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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