Illinois St 85, Saint Mary's 90
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Pavilion. Illinois St our rank 118 · 1-2; Saint Mary's our rank 62 · 2-1.
Who won Illinois St vs Saint Mary's?
Final: Saint Mary's 90, Illinois State 85. Before tip-off the model gave Saint Mary's a 86% chance to win, with a projected margin of 13.1 points for Saint Mary's. Mantas Juzenas scored 20 for Saint Mary's; Johnny Kinziger had 30 for Illinois St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Joshua Dent: Illinois St 23%Saint Mary's 77%
The white mark is the call with him: Saint Mary's 86%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Saint Mary's without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's | ||||
| Joshua Dent | 4.0 | 77% | −9 | 61–70 |
| Mantas Juzenas | 3.0 | 79% | −7 | 61–71 |
| Vangelis Zougris | 2.3 | 81% | −5 | 60–71 |
| Thomas Ndong | 2.1 | 81% | −5 | 60–71 |
| Illinois St | ||||
| Johnny Kinziger | 1.8 | 89% | +3 | 58–73 |
| Chase Walker | 1.6 | 88% | +2 | 58–73 |
| Mason Klabo | 1.3 | 88% | +2 | 59–73 |
| Malik Messina-Moore | 1.2 | 88% | +2 | 59–73 |
Change is in Saint Mary's's win chance, in points. Scores read Illinois St, then Saint Mary's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Illinois St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Saint Mary's
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Illinois St | Saint Mary's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.2 110th | 115.0 53rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.7 144th | 101.5 76th |
| Possessions a game | 69.6 302nd | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.9% 44th | 54.2% 13th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 228th | 52.8% 325th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 229th | 16.0% 11th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.3% 269th | 30.3% 270th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 214th | 0.22 342nd |
The widest gap: Saint Mary's's offense (53rd) against Illinois St's defense (144th), of 365 teams.
First half
Illinois St led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 13.2 points and the total by 10.2.
- At halftime
- Illinois St 39, Saint Mary's 33
- Projected halftime score
- Illinois St 27, Saint Mary's 34
- First-half margin
- Saint Mary's by 7.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Illinois St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny KinzigerG | 42 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Demarion BurchG | 39 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Mason KlaboG | 32 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Malik Messina-MooreG | 32 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Noah ClevelandF | 25 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase WalkerF | 18 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Deng GarangG | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick AllenF | 11 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Zaxton KingG | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Saint Mary's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua DentG | 43 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Mantas JuzenasG | 38 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| Jeremy Dent-SmithG | 27 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Thomas NdongF | 24 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Vangelis ZougrisF | 23 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Rory HawkeG | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Darius BivinsG | 22 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Jazz GardnerC | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin GadF | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |