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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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Illinois St at N Dakota St

Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Scheels Center. Illinois St our rank 118 · 1-2; N Dakota St our rank 219 · 1-3.

Who will win Illinois St vs N Dakota St?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Illinois State a 65% chance to beat North Dakota State, with a projected score of Illinois St 78, N Dakota St 74. The spread is Illinois St −2.5, with an over/under of 147.5. The model makes it Illinois St by 4.3, 1.8 points toward Illinois St, and projects 152 total points.

To winIllinois St 65%N Dakota St 35%
Projected score78–74Illinois St, then N Dakota St
Margin4.3Illinois St · line: Illinois St 2.5
Total152.1line: 147.5
First half37–34Illinois St ahead 58%
Illinois St by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20N Dakota St by 30Model: Illinois St by 4.3Line: Illinois St by 2.5Illinois St by 30by 10by 10N Dakota St by 30Model: Illinois St by 4.3Line: Illinois St by 2.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Illinois St
KinzigerG · 35 min18.32.54.020+ 40%
Messina-MooreG · 27 min13.53.03.415+ 40%
BurchG · 23 min9.32.71.210+ 43%
KlaboG · 26 min8.93.32.810+ 40%
N Dakota St
Diaz IIIG · 28 min13.23.82.915+ 38%
IversenG · 25 min10.32.01.510+ 50%
NagyF · 26 min8.54.01.010+ 37%
MasseyG · 21 min8.22.61.810+ 35%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Johnny Kinziger: Illinois St 59%N Dakota St 41%

The white mark is the call with him: Illinois St 65%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsIllinois St without himChangeProjected score
Illinois St
Johnny Kinziger1.859%−677–75
Chase Walker1.659%−677–75
Mason Klabo1.360%−578–75
Malik Messina-Moore1.261%−478–74
N Dakota St
Rob Diaz III0.968%+379–73

Change is in Illinois St's win chance, in points. Scores read Illinois St, then N Dakota St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineIllinois St −2.5147.5
ModelIllinois St −4.3152.1
Gap1.8 toward Illinois St4.6 higher

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Illinois St 1-2LWL

    1. Nov 9L 59-76at PurdueDidn't cover +15.5 · Under 143.5
    2. Nov 5W 100-55vs Central State
    3. Nov 2L 85-90at Saint Mary's
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 81.3 and allowing 73.7
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    N Dakota St 1-3WLLL

    1. Nov 8L 80-91at BakersfieldDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 152.5
    2. Nov 6L 70-79at San FranciscoDidn't cover +8.5 · Over 145.5
    3. Nov 4L 64-105at Saint Mary'sDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 148.5
    4. Nov 2W 90-59vs Crookston (MN)
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 76.0 and allowing 83.5
    Against the spread, this season
    0–3
    Totals, this season
    3 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Illinois StN Dakota St
    Points scored per 100 possessions108.2 110th105.5 151st
    Points allowed per 100106.7 144th112.7 304th
    Possessions a game69.6 302nd70.2 245th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)52.9% 44th50.1% 215th
    Opponents' shooting51.1% 228th56.9% 364th
    Turnovers, share of possessions18.5% 229th16.5% 30th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.3% 269th33.9% 66th
    Free throws per shot0.25 214th0.22 343rd

    The widest gap: Illinois St's offense (110th) against N Dakota St's defense (304th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Illinois St 37, N Dakota St 34
    First-half margin
    Illinois St by 2.4
    First-half points, both teams
    71.4
    Projected second half
    Illinois St 41, N Dakota St 39
    Second-half points, both teams
    80.7
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Illinois St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 32.7 allowed
    N Dakota St, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 31.8 scored, 38.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Illinois St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Johnny KinzigerG3518.32.54.02.5
    20+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 55%
    Malik Messina-MooreG2713.53.03.42.2
    15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 58%
    Mason KlaboG268.93.32.81.4
    10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 50%
    Demarion BurchG239.32.71.21.1
    10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 61%
    Noah ClevelandF238.25.01.20.3
    10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 32%
    Zaxton KingG174.01.11.20.6
    5+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 31% · 1+ threes 45%
    Chase WalkerF158.83.61.70.3
    10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 48%
    Louie Semona IIIF142.61.90.80.5
    5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 40%

    N Dakota St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Rob Diaz IIIG2813.23.82.91.5
    15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 53%
    Andrew NagyF268.54.01.01.3
    10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 34%
    Andy StefonowiczG257.62.33.91.4
    49% to play · 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 60% · 4+ ast 52%
    Max IversenG2510.32.01.51.6
    10+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 45%
    Melvin Bell Jr.G246.92.50.50.7
    5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47%
    Riley MasseyG218.22.61.81.0
    10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 50%
    Carson SmithG185.13.30.30.7
    5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 47%
    Kaden TateF184.74.80.50.2
    5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 19%

    Missed the last game: Andy Stefonowicz (26 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    2. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    Illinois St next: vs Bellarmine, Tue, Nov 17 · 89%N Dakota St next: vs Bakersfield, Sun, Nov 15 · 56%Illinois St: schedule and oddsN Dakota St: schedule and odds