Bellarmine at Illinois St
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at CEFCU Arena. Bellarmine our rank 293 · 1-3; Illinois St our rank 118 · 1-2.
Who will win Bellarmine vs Illinois St?
The model gives Illinois State a 89% chance to beat Bellarmine, with a projected score of Illinois St 83, Bellarmine 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois St | |||||
| KinzigerG · 34 min | 18.6 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 20+ 42% | |
| Messina-MooreG · 26 min | 13.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 15+ 42% | |
| BurchG · 23 min | 9.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| WalkerF · 15 min | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 44% | |
| Bellarmine | |||||
| DoyleG · 29 min | 11.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 10+ 58% | |
| DonaldF · 28 min | 8.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 10+ 38% | |
| GoodinG · 26 min | 8.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 38% | |
| WasslerF · 20 min | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Johnny Kinziger: Bellarmine 15%Illinois St 85%
The white mark is the call with him: Illinois St 89%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Illinois St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois St | ||||
| Johnny Kinziger | 1.8 | 85% | −4 | 71–83 |
| Chase Walker | 1.6 | 86% | −3 | 71–83 |
| Mason Klabo | 1.3 | 86% | −3 | 70–83 |
| Malik Messina-Moore | 1.2 | 86% | −3 | 70–83 |
Change is in Illinois St's win chance, in points. Scores read Bellarmine, then Illinois St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Bellarmine 1-3LLLW
- Nov 11W 99-82vs Franklin
- Nov 7L 73-80at Miami OHCovered +20.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 5L 69-92at IndianaCovered +30.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 2L 47-93at Vanderbilt
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 72.0 and allowing 86.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Illinois St 1-2LWL
- Nov 9L 59-76at PurdueDidn't cover +15.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 5W 100-55vs Central State
- Nov 2L 85-90at Saint Mary's
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 81.3 and allowing 73.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bellarmine | Illinois St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.6 171st | 108.2 110th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 117.5 359th | 106.7 144th |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 307th | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.3% 126th | 52.9% 44th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.5% 311th | 51.1% 228th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.0% 289th | 18.5% 229th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.1% 276th | 30.3% 269th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 217th | 0.25 214th |
The widest gap: Illinois St's offense (110th) against Bellarmine's defense (359th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Bellarmine 32, Illinois St 40
- First-half margin
- Illinois St by 7.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.9
- Projected second half
- Bellarmine 38, Illinois St 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Bellarmine, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.2 scored, 38.8 allowed
- Illinois St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 32.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Bellarmine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler DoyleG | 29 | 11.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Sam DonaldF | 28 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Kenyon GoodinG | 26 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Jacob WasslerF | 20 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Demarcus SurrattG | 18 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Julius GizziG | 17 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Grant WhitakerG | 16 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Evan HarrellF | 15 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Illinois St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny KinzigerG | 34 | 18.6 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| 20+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Malik Messina-MooreG | 26 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Mason KlaboG | 26 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Demarion BurchG | 23 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Noah ClevelandF | 23 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Zaxton KingG | 17 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 35% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Chase WalkerF | 15 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Louie Semona IIIF | 14 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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