Who will win Illinois vs Duke?
The model gives Duke a 75% chance to beat Illinois, with a projected score of Duke 82, Illinois 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke | |||||
| Ngongba IIC · 27 min | 14.6 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 15+ 47% | |
| BlackwellG · 28 min | 13.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 15+ 42% | |
| SarrF · 26 min | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 46% | |
| Boumtje BoumtjeC · 21 min | 9.0 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 41% | |
 Illinois | |||||
| StojakovicG · 28 min | 16.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 15+ 60% | |
| ColemanG · 24 min | 12.7 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| VaaksG · 21 min | 11.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 57% | |
| IvisicC · 25 min | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Patrick Ngongba II: Illinois 44%Duke 56%
The white mark is the call with him: Duke 75%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Duke without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | ||||
| Patrick Ngongba II | 5.9 | 56% | −19 | 77–79 |
| John Blackwell | 4.9 | 60% | −15 | 77–79 |
| Dame Sarr | 4.2 | 62% | −13 | 76–80 |
| Cayden Boozer | 4.2 | 62% | −13 | 76–80 |
| Illinois | ||||
| Andrej Stojakovic | 5.3 | 88% | +13 | 71–84 |
| Tomislav Ivisic | 4.5 | 86% | +11 | 72–84 |
| Stefan Vaaks | 3.1 | 83% | +8 | 73–83 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic | 3.1 | 83% | +8 | 73–83 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read Illinois, then Duke. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Illinois | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 125.2 1st | 123.4 2nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.0 19th | 88.5 2nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 55.7% 3rd | 51.7% 97th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.7% 4th | 48.2% 41st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 111th | 18.9% 283rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.2% 6th | 35.9% 10th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 353rd | 0.31 27th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Illinois 34, Duke 39
- First-half margin
- Duke by 4.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.1
- Projected second half
- Illinois 40, Duke 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Duke, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 23.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej StojakovicG | 28 | 16.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Ethan BrownG | 25 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Tomislav IvisicC | 25 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Quentin ColemanG | 24 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Lincoln WilliamsG | 21 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Stefan VaaksG | 21 | 11.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Zavier ZensF | 21 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Zvonimir IvisicF | 13 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John BlackwellG | 28 | 13.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Patrick Ngongba IIC | 27 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Dame SarrF | 26 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Cayden BoozerG | 24 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Caleb FosterG | 22 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeC | 21 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Sebastian WilkinsF | 20 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Deron Rippey Jr.G | 16 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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