Sam Houston at Illinois
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Center. Sam Houston our rank 146 · 2-1; Illinois AP 3, our rank 5 · 2-1.
Who will win Sam Houston vs Illinois?
The model gives Illinois a >99% chance to beat Sam Houston, with a projected score of Illinois 95, Sam Houston 64. The spread is Illinois −36.5, with an over/under of 173.5. The model makes it Illinois by 31.0, 5.5 points toward Sam Houston, and projects 160 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | |||||
| StojakovicG · 26 min | 19.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 20+ 48% | |
| ColemanG · 24 min | 15.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 15+ 50% | |
| VaaksG · 20 min | 13.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 15+ 40% | |
| IvisicC · 24 min | 10.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| Sam Houston | |||||
| ColemanG · 26 min | 11.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 57% | |
| McDowellG · 25 min | 11.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 55% | |
| BeggG · 25 min | 8.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 10+ 36% | |
| OkeF · 18 min | 6.4 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Andrej Stojakovic: Sam Houston 1%Illinois 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Illinois >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Illinois without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | ||||
| Andrej Stojakovic | 5.3 | 99% | −1 | 67–93 |
| Tomislav Ivisic | 4.5 | 99% | −1 | 67–93 |
| Stefan Vaaks | 3.1 | 99% | −1 | 66–94 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic | 3.1 | 99% | −1 | 66–94 |
| Sam Houston | ||||
| Enel St. Bernard | 1.6 | >99% | 0 | 64–96 |
| Riccardo Greppi | 0.8 | >99% | 0 | 64–96 |
| Jacobe Coleman | 0.8 | >99% | 0 | 64–96 |
Change is in Illinois's win chance, in points. Scores read Sam Houston, then Illinois. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Illinois −36.5 | 173.5 |
| Model | Illinois −31 | 159.6 |
| Gap | 5.5 toward Sam Houston | 13.9 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Sam Houston 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 85-77vs PepperdineCovered +3.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 7W 102-59vs Howard Payne
- Nov 3L 74-96at Alabama
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 87.0 and allowing 77.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Sam Houston | Illinois | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.0 162nd | 125.2 1st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.3 156th | 94.0 19th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 71.4 111th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 265th | 55.7% 3rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 231st | 45.7% 4th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 265th | 17.5% 111th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 138th | 36.2% 6th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 44th | 0.21 353rd |
The widest gap: Illinois's offense (1st) against Sam Houston's defense (156th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Sam Houston 29, Illinois 46
- First-half margin
- Illinois by 17.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.9
- Projected second half
- Sam Houston 35, Illinois 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Sam Houston, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 32.7 allowed
- Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Sam Houston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enel St. BernardF | 26 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Jacobe ColemanG | 26 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Aidan McDowellG | 25 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Justin BeggG | 25 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Zion PipkinG | 20 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Yoda OkeF | 18 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Riccardo GreppiF | 18 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Matt DannF | 14 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 50% | |||||
Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej StojakovicG | 26 | 19.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 20+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Ethan BrownG | 24 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 55% | |||||
| Tomislav IvisicC | 24 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Quentin ColemanG | 24 | 15.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Lincoln WilliamsG | 21 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Stefan VaaksG | 20 | 13.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Zavier ZensF | 20 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Zvonimir IvisicF | 14 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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